You wouldn't have
thought America is in a mood to reach for the moon with China.
Certainly not after George W. Bush's recent summit with Hu Jintao,
when the Chinese president didn't lend any meaningful support for
international efforts to tackle North Korea and Iran's
nuclear-weapons programs. But that's precisely what China is
gleefully claiming as a result of a little-noticed by product of
the April 20 summit. Beijing, it seems, wants the world to believe
that the next lunar mission will be a joint Sino-U.S. program --
and the White House has given it the ammunition to do so.
It all stems from a post-summit press briefing by Deputy National
Security Advisor Faryar Shirzad and National Security Council
Acting Senior Director Dennis Wilder. They told journalists that
President Bush had agreed to dispatch NASA Administrator Michael
Griffin to China "to begin to talk about lunar exploration with the
Chinese." That marks a major shift away from America's longstanding
policy of avoiding most kinds of contact with China's military-run
space program, largely for fear of allowing sensitive dual-use
technology to fall into Beijing's hands. Until now, that policy has
been so strict that the U.S. even successfully pressured the
European Space Agency in 2004 to limit China's access to the
Galileo global-positioning system it is developing.
So it wasn't long before alarm bells began ringing in Washington
over a policy change that doesn't seem to have been fully discussed
within the Bush administration. "Did you see what they sneaked into
the press briefing?" one administration official asked me in
disbelief. "What will the Europeans think after we threw a fit
about Galileo?" Under sharp questioning before a Senate committee,
Mr. Griffin was evasive about what his trip would entail, saying it
was too early to "hazard a guess as to what our relationship in the
long term would be."
Apart from the brief reference to cooperating over "lunar
exploration" in the April 20 briefing, which was bracketed together
with more mundane issues such as dealing with space debris, there's
no sign anyone in the administration is thinking seriously about a
joint lunar mission. But that hasn't stopped Beijing from
portraying it as a done deal. "China, U.S. to join hands in lunar
probing," proclaimed a headline last week in the People's Daily,
the Communist Party's official mouthpiece. The article also pointed
to the "coincident landing time" of planned missions to the moon by
China in 2017 and the U.S. in 2018.
What's rather more advanced is the idea of helping China modify the
hatch on its Shenzhou space capsule so that it can dock with the
International Space Station and U.S. spacecraft. Republican
Congressman Mark Kirk, cofounder of a Congressional caucus seeking
cooperation with Beijing known as the "U.S.-China Working Group,"
returned from a recent trip to Beijing with a Chinese proposal that
this would help "rescue" U.S. astronauts in an emergency.
But even that is causing concern at the Pentagon. Defense officials
see enhancing the People's Liberation Army's familiarity with
American space systems as particularly unwise, given that the U.S.
depends on space satellites for approximately 90% of its military
communications, intelligence, and command and control of military
operations. A European space expert also pointed out that China's
Shenzhou capsules are fitted with military sensors -- one reason
the Europeans did not want to get involved with the Shenzhou
program. Cooperating with Beijing could violate International
Governmental Agreement setting up the Space Station, which
stipulates it is to be used "exclusively for peaceful
purposes."
Space cooperation with China can take more mundane forms. America's
National Center for Atmospheric Research already uses U.S. weather
satellites to collect data on ocean temperatures from Chinese
scientific vessels near the equator. There can be few objections to
space cooperation with Beijing in areas like this, as well as
monitoring the environment and pollution levels. But there are many
areas of space technology central to manned space flight, such as
global positioning, communications and orbital trajectory
targeting, which have direct military applications. Other
technologies used in space flight and exploration are on the U.S.
export control list, such as robotics, advanced materials and new
battery technology. These are all areas where the U.S. is the world
leader and China is anxious to get its hands on America's
proprietary engineering processes.
Remember too, that Beijing has a history of using U.S. space
technology to enhance its military capabilities. A 1999
investigation by former California Congressman Christopher Cox
found that China had used technical assistance from U.S. companies
to uncover a series of problems with the nose cone in its Long
March series of rockets used to launch commercial satellites into
space. Mr. Cox argued that assistance helped China avoid similar
problems with its intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are
capable of delivering nuclear warheads as far as the U.S.
That highlights the dangers in cooperating with China's
military-run space program. Giving Beijing access to technology
which it can integrate into weapons systems could allow it to
target not only America's democratic allies and friends in Asia --
Taiwan, Japan and India in particular -- but ultimately America
itself, too. Cooperating with China over space may seem innocuous,
and in some limited areas, it is. But past experience shows that if
this extends to sharing technology -- as any kind of lunar
cooperation certainly would -- it will be a one-way street, in
which Beijing ends up as the only winner.
John Tkacik
a
senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington,
D.C., is a retired officer in the U.S. foreign service who served
in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Taipei.
First appeared in The Wall Street Journal (Asia)