The report issued last month by President
Bush's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform landed in no-man's
land. The right was disappointed that its proposals were so timid,
and the left was critical because the report highlighted the
damaging impact of high tax rates on work, saving and
investment.
Perhaps the panel could have won more hearts and minds if it had
examined the real-world experience with tax reform. The flat-tax
revolution in Eastern Europe is particularly compelling. Nine
nations from the old Soviet bloc have adopted the flat tax -- which
taxes income at one rate -- and others are poised to. In an ironic
twist, these countries are rejecting the class-warfare politics of
yesteryear and building tax systems specifically designed to
attract investment, fuel economic growth and treat all citizens
fairly.
Russia, for instance, enjoys the benefits of the 13 percent flat
tax it adopted in 2001. The tax quickly yielded positive results.
Revenue poured into government coffers as tax evasion and avoidance
became much less profitable. Inflation-adjusted personal income tax
revenue has more than doubled since the flat tax was
implemented.
But Russia was simply learning from its neighbors. Estonia was the
first, adopting a 26 percent flat rate in 1994. Latvia and
Lithuania followed in the mid-1990s, with 25 percent and 33 percent
rates, respectively. Serbia was next; in 2003 it went with a 14
percent rate. Last year, it was Slovakia (19 percent) and Ukraine
(13 percent). This year it's been Romania (16 percent) and Georgia,
which boasts the lowest rate -- 12 percent.
Estonia has been cutting its rate: It's at 24 percent and will drop
to 20 percent before the end of the decade. Lithuania also has
decided to make its flat tax more competitive; the rate will go
from 33 to 24 percent.
The flat tax is not a silver bullet. But combined with other market
reforms, it provides a significant economic boost. All three Baltic
nations are enjoying strong growth, averaging over 5 percent per
year. No wonder the "Baltic Tigers" became role models for the
region. This growth is generating plenty of tax revenue, in part
because tax evasion has been dramatically reduced. And the rich are
paying the lion's share: In Estonia, for instance, the top 10
percent are paying 41 percent of the tax.
Slovakia's system is not yet two years old, but it's already
successful. According to the director of Slovakia's Hayek
Institute, income-tax revenue is 0.5 percent of gross domestic
product larger than predicted by "static" estimates (those that
fail to account for inevitable changes in behavior when tax laws
are changed). New investment is flooding Slovakia. So many car
companies are building factories that the country is being called
the "Detroit of Europe."
Others have noticed the economic success these nations are
enjoying. The newly elected coalition in Poland may implement a
flat tax, and the opposition party in the Czech Republic has
promised a 15 percent flat-tax regime if it wins the next election.
Lawmakers in Croatia, Bulgaria and Hungary are discussing tax
reform.
Western European politicians have cast a wary eye on this tax
revolution. Bureaucrats in the European Union and the Paris-based
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development object to
"harmful" tax competition, and politicians from France and Sweden
complain about "fiscal dumping." But such criticism is hard to take
seriously coming from leaders who preside over economies saddled
with high unemployment and anemic growth.
Indeed, some Western European lawmakers, including those in Spain,
Greece, Denmark, Holland, Germany and Britain, have begun
discussing the possibility of implementing a flat tax.
That these discussions are even taking place is a testimony to the
liberalizing force of tax competition. And if the rumors are true
about China's implementing a flat tax sometime next year, the
tax-reform steamroller may become a juggernaut.
To be sure, Eastern European nations don't have perfect tax
systems. Many are still plagued by oppressively high payroll taxes.
But tax reform in Eastern Europe is a clear success, and the United
States can learn from what other nations have accomplished.
Our economy, under a flat tax, probably wouldn't grow quite as fast
as Estonia's, and it's unlikely that we'd get the same revenue
windfall as Russia. But the evidence from Eastern Europe strongly
suggests that a flat tax would strengthen our economy, improve tax
compliance and reduce political corruption. We also could expect it
to boost capital formation; it has been a magnet for new investment
in Eastern Europe.
In recent years President Bush has praised Russia's flat tax. He
even said during a visit to Slovakia that it was his dream to have
a flat tax in the United States. Let's hope that dream becomes a
reality. America and the West may have won the Cold War, but if we
continue to be burdened by the internal revenue code, the former
communist nations may get the last laugh.
Daniel J.
Mitchell is McKenna senior fellow in political economy
at The Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in the Washington Post