South Korea President Roh Moo Hyun has said he wants to
transform his country into the business hub of Northeast Asia.
Soon, he'll get his chance.
When the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit
convenes on his home turf, Roh can seize control of the forum and
demonstrate his commitment to trade by moving to establish
free-trade agreements (FTAs), particularly with the United
States
FTAs have become a primary focus of the Roh administration's trade
policy. South Korea already is in negotiations to scrap tariffs
with nations such as Japan, Canada, the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the four-member European Free
Trade Association (EFTA). Seoul and Washington have completed
several rounds of feasibility talks on an FTA, and some South
Korean officials say the summit would be a good time to announce
the launch of formal negotiations. While such announcements may be
premature, President Roh's timely political leadership is crucial
to forging an FTA with Washington in the foreseeable future.
Official Washington support for an FTA with Seoul has been
cautious at best. But Congress and the Bush administration, along
with growing numbers of officials from the business community, have
begun to recognize the merits of pursuing such a pact. For example,
the Washington-based National Association of Manufactures has
identified South Korea as one of the "top five candidate countries"
for a future trade agreement. In a letter circulated to his
colleagues on Capitol Hill, Indiana's Republican congressman Dan
Burton, vice-chairman of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
of the House International Relations Committee, emphasized that
South Korea would make "an excellent candidate for consideration of
U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations."
As preliminary talks have moved forward, South Korea and the United
States have found themselves increasingly well-suited to become
even closer trading partners. With bilateral trade already at more
than $70 billion, encompassing electronics, machinery, chemicals,
transportation equipment, and agricultural products, a U.S.-South
Korea pact would be the second-largest free-trade agreement for the
United States (after NAFTA). It could increase American exports to
South Korea by $20 billion and South Korean exports by $10 billion,
according to a study by the U.S. International Trade
Commission.
The USITC study concluded that the largest gains would be in
agricultural products, textiles and apparels. For South Korea,
increased trade with the United States is not just beneficial, but
necessary in order to achieve its goal of raising annual per-capita
income to $20,000 by 2010. Given its scarcity of natural resources
and the economy's heavy reliance on external trade, which accounts
for nearly 70 percent of GDP, South Korea will not realize this
goal unless it participates in more trade agreements.
Washington also has come to appreciate the strategic value of
solidifying our ties to Northeast Asia via trade, especially in
light of China's growing economic influence in the region. For
South Korea, steadily growing economic ties have become one of the
most important pillars supporting its dynamic and comprehensive
alliance with the U.S.
U.S. policymakers see clear advantages to establishing an FTA with
South Korea, but they are unsure whether South Korea is serious and
ready for such an agreement. Bilateral trade issues (such as screen
quotas that limit the screening of foreign films) and agricultural
issues (such as lifting the ban on American beef) remain
unresolved, and the South Koreans don't seem anxious to push
forward on them.
Seoul's difficulty in passing the ROK-Chile FTA, which took almost
a year to ratify, indicates the difficulties that lie ahead. To
make matters worse, growing popular nationalism in response to the
opening of South Korean markets has caused concern in Washington.
Although nationalism itself is not necessarily a negative trend, in
South Korea the tone is worrisomely tied to anti-foreign sentiment,
including a popular backlash against foreign investments.
Without progress on those issues, the Bush administration is in no
hurry to put FTA negotiations with South Korea on a fast track. As
aggressive as the administration has been on pursuing other FTAs,
this foot-dragging signals to Congress that it need not take up the
issue.
This is where the leadership of President Roh comes in. If he wants
to position his country as the trade leader of its region, now is
the time. South Korea needs a national debate on the merits of
opening the economy to increased opportunities. The Roh government
needs to make the case against the claims of the militant unions
that have staged sometimes-violent protests against foreign trade,
as well as the narrow special interests that have controlled South
Korea's legislative process for too long.
President Roh could lead this debate and even expand it to explore
Seoul's need to upgrade its economic system by removing barriers
that still limit economic freedom and therefore entrepreneurial
opportunities.
Assembling a coalition to push through an FTA with the United
States won't be easy. But mature democracies make tough decisions
for the long term, and they do so with strong leadership and by
expanding the circle of cooperation. South Korea is no different.
The time to act is now.
Anthony B. Kim is research associate in the Center for International Trade and Economics at the Heritage Foundation
First appeared in National Review Online