Iraqis again defied terrorists and the threat of force and came
out this weekend to vote for their future. People who for decades
were denied a voice in their own affairs by Saddam Hussein and the
authoritarian Ba'ath Party for the second time this year affirmed
their desire for a free and democratic way of life by endorsing the
draft constitution for a united, federal Iraq. If all goes well, on
Dec. 15 Iraqis will be electing a new parliament. This weekend may
have been the tipping point in Iraq.
The winners are the Iraqi people, who step by step are building a
democracy in a place where brutal dictatorship thrived for a very
long time. This week, the trial of Saddam Hussein will begin and
with it will come reminders of what life in Iraq used to be like.
Curiously, when the United Nations discusses "the responsibility to
protect" a people from the abuses of their rulers or the
vicissitudes of failed states, no one mentions that the people of
Iraq were eminently good candidates for such international
protection.
The losers continue to be the insurgents and their al Qaeda
supporters. A vote for democracy in Iraq and elsewhere in the
Middle East is a huge roadblock for religious Islamic fanatics.
Earlier this month the United States obtained a letter from Osama
bin Laden's deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, sent to the leader of the Iraqi
insurgents, Abu Musab Zarkawi, which outlined their strategy: First
drive American forces from Iraq; second, establish a religious
caliphate over as much of Iraq as possible; third, export the
revolution to Egypt, Syria and Lebanon, and finally, go to war with
Israel. U.S. military steadfastness and Iraqi democracy will block
that agenda.
Sunni Muslims, who occupy the center of Iraq and represent some 20
percent of the population, clearly feel they are losers. In a true
democracy, where minority rights guarantee that it is not a
zero-sum game, those fears would be unfounded. But being a minority
governed by others is not what they have been used to.
The reality is that Sunnis have yet to accept their loss of power
in Iraq. It was touch and go whether Sunni leaders would
participate in the referendum or whether they would try to block
ratification of the constitution. Many Sunnis are still hoping for
a premature U.S. withdrawal that would allow them to rout the other
ethnic groups militarily and restore Sunni control of most of
Iraq.
"The Sunnis have no repentance," said Bing West, author of "No
True Glory: a Frontline Account of the Battle for Fallujah" on Oct.
7 at the Heritage Foundation. "They believe if we left, they would
be ruling the Shiites in three months." Having been in charge for
700 years, Sunnis may be correct in believing that and, in any
event, have a hard time believing their centuries-long run is
over.
Now, Sunni leaders are crying election fraud because they failed
to produce a No vote in a total of three Iraq's 18 provinces, which
would have blocked the draft constitution and prolonged the
process. Suspicions of fraud have also been charged in Kurdish and
Shiite areas.
Yet, if you look at the preliminary figures, they don't seem out
of whack on the face of it. According to Agence France Press,
unusually high numbers of Yes votes have been recorded in a number
of Iraq's provinces; in some Kurdish and Shiite provinces as many
as 97 and 98 percent voted Yes to the constitution. This is
certainly high, but these are the ethic groups that tried to escape
Saddam's control for over 10 years. Would it be very strange if
just about everybody voted for a constitution that gave them the
protection, the independence and the rights they have fought so
hard for? As it happens, in Fallujah, center of the insurgency, the
votes were 97 percent against ratification, not a very surprising
result either.
Meanwhile, two provinces crucial to the result, Nineveh and
Diyala, have mixed populations. According to the head of Iraq's
election commission, the tallies there were roughly proportionate
to the ethnic mix. The No votes were in the majority, only they
were insufficient to block the constitution.
To ensure the maximum legitimacy, Iraq's election commission and
foreign observers on the ground have to take complaints seriously
and demonstrate as transparent an accounting process as possible.
But why should we be surprised if most voted for turning a new
leaf, considering their suffering in the recent past?
Helle Dale is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage
Foundation.
First appeared in The Washington Times