Nuclear proliferation is no laughing matter. Nonetheless, last
week's announcement that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2005 had been
awarded to the International Atomic Energy Agency and its
director-general, Mohammed ElBaradei, "for their efforts to prevent
nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and to ensure
that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is used in the safest
possible way" hardly passes the laugh test. The choice could not
have been more perfect if the Nobel Committee were determined to
demonstrate that Norwegians have a sense of humor.
The unlikely choice for this year's Nobel Peace Prize comes as
European and American negotiations to persuade Iran to give up its
uranium enrichment cycle have reached a total impasse and as
agreements with North Korea to give up its dangerous nuclear
program are at best tentative. The list of countries either with
nuclear weapons or capable of acquiring them is steadily growing.
In other words, if the Norwegians are rewarding anything, it is
failure.
The explanation that makes most sense is - surprise, surprise -
that the Nobel Committee was motivated by politics, in particular a
desire to administer a slap in the face to the American government.
With this year's award, the committee (which is composed of five
Norwegian politicians with a distinctive perspective of their own
and precious little experience of the world) has again undermined
the meaning of its prestigious award. Both Mr. ElBaradei and his
predecessor Hans Blix were vociferous opponents of the Iraq War,
and both pleaded to allow more time for IAEA inspections. The Bush
administration opposed the reappointment of Mr. ElBaradei to head
the agency last summer.
It would not be the first time the Nobel Peace Prize and U.S.
politics got tangled. The 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, for instance, was
awarded to former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, an outspoken critic
of the Bush administration's policy on Iraq. Back then, a Nobel
Committee member let slip that the prize was meant as "a kick in
the legs to the Bush administration." Fascinatingly, though, the
decision to reward the IAEA has been greeted with outrage and
criticism from all sorts of directions, particularly the left.
Alice Slater, founder of Abolition 2000, identified on its Web site
as a global network to eliminate nuclear weapons, observed that:
"The IAEA has been the world's most effective agent for increasing
the spread of nuclear weapons around the planet with its
industry-dominated promotion of so-called 'peaceful nuclear
technology.' "
In the Middle East, interpretations were all over the map. In
Egypt, Mr. ElBaradei's home country, Arab commentators saw the
choice directed obviously against the United States and against
Israel's never-acknowledged nuclear program, while Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon saw it directed at Iran. In Iran, meanwhile,
the spokesman for the parliament's foreign affairs committee, Kazem
Jalali, predicted that "with this prize Mr. ElBaradei will become
closer to the political position of the United States and the
Europeans... And he will put more pressure on Iran."
Clearly there is frustration across the political spectrum with the
proliferation of nuclear technology and weapons. Iran managed to
keep its program a secret for 18 years. North Korea concealed its
program from IAEA inspectors for years before throwing them out and
withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iraq's
nuclear program went undetected until revealed by a son-in-law of
Saddam Hussein who defected. Libya, too, had a massive secret
nuclear program, given up in 2003 after the sobering fact of the
U.S. invasion of Iraq. With the spread of peaceful nuclear
technology, more and more countries have the potential to produce
nuclear arms.
Are we doomed to live in a world of nuclear proliferation? It is
certainly unrealistic to trust international agencies like the IAEA
to put the genie back in this bottle. Yet, we can make the economic
and diplomatic price for aspiring nuclear powers painfully high
through multilateral sanctions regimes, such as those now being
considered through the United Nations Security Council against Iran
by the United States, France, Britain and Germany. Countries like
Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine, after all, have renounced their
nuclear programs. We can physically intercept transfers of nuclear
material and technology through mechanisms like the cooperative
Proliferation Security Initiative.
And we can forge ahead with missile defense, which is the only sure
way to make nuclear weapons obsolete. Nuclear weapons will only
become a thing of the past when the cost of pursuing them far
outweighs the benefits.
Helle Dale is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in The Washington Times