ROAIX, France.
The decision last week by Iran to resume processing of uranium at
its nuclear facility in Isfahan after a nine-month hiatus is
obviously an act of defiance. Greeted with great consternation here
in France, it is widely perceived to be an act of affront against
European efforts at engagement with Iran. French Foreign Minister
Philippe Douste-Blazy called the development a "grave crisis" and
said that it was "particularly alarming" that a change had taken
place in the spirit in which the two sides had been
negotiating.
The offer made by the Europeans to dissuade Iran from this
dangerous course of action involved furnishing Iran with nuclear
fuel for its civilian nuclear program, fuel that could be accounted
for and returned to the West for treatment and storage. In
addition, it also included economic, technical and security
assistance. It was a very good deal if the civilian uses of nuclear
power were what this was all about. It never was, of course. The
obvious explanation is that Iranians overwhelmingly believe they
need a nuclear weapon and are determined to get one.
The French concern over the Iranian position was echoed by German
Foreign Minister Joschka Fisher, who warned of "disastrous
consequences." That clear message, regrettably, was unhelpfully
diluted on Sunday by German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who is in
full election-campaign mode. In an interview, Mr. Schroeder ruled
out any German participation in a military option against Iran,
responding to a statement by President Bush, who has stated that
"all options are on the table." The focus should, of course, remain
squarely on Iran's flagrant breach of commitments made last
November to Britain, France and Germany to refrain from the
reprocessing of nuclear fuel in return for a package of incentives.
This initiative was backed by the United States in an attempt to
get Washington and Europe on the same page against Iran. Despite
the currently impasse, it remains essentially the right
approach.
Europeans have usually been all too swift in shifting the blame to
the United States. They like to complain that Americans still
harbor an irrational antipathy against Iran for the 1979
hostage-taking. Thanks, however, to the implacable attitude of
Iran's hardline government, as well as the decision made in March
by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to back European
negotiations with Iran, the tables have been turned. Iran is
correctly perceived here to be the problem.
Comments Le Monde: "From the point of view of the Americans, there
is at least one positive aspect in the crisis with Iran: It has
brought the United States and Europe together. The radicalization
observed by Tehran after the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has
silenced the transatlantic disagreements over how to analyze the
Iranian regime and its pretensions to become a nuclear power: what
the hawks call the hidden benefits of the Iranian election." Writes
Le Figaro: "The only choice for the western countries is to remain
united in their determination. There is no more legitimate cause
than preventing a regime openly dedicated to destroying Israel and
supporting terrorist movements from acquiring nuclear weapons."
This unexceptional sentiment is hardly what one expects from the
French press.
It is crucial for Americans and Europeans to be on the same side
if we are to have a comprehensive strategy for dealing with Iran,
one that features real sticks and carrots. It is at least progress
that Europeans now talk about referrals to the U.N. Security
Council. Any action in the Security Council, however, will almost
certainly be blocked by China and Russia. This means that the
credible threat of force must be part of such a strategy.
Iran has to be persuaded not just of the benefits of cooperating
with European offers, but urgently also of the costs of pursuing
its dangerous quest for nuclear weapons. The estimated timeframe
before Iran becomes a nuclear power is between one to 10 years,
depending on which intelligence agency you listen to. It does not
leave us much time.
The costs for Iran associated with pursuit on nuclear ambitions
should start with the suspension of European investments and loan
guarantees, and end with the threat of American-led international
military action. This would include deployment of the robust,
deep-earth penetrating nuclear weapon designed to collapse tunnels,
which Congress urgently needs to be persuaded to fund fully. Only
if the West works together can we present Iran with real sticks to
go with all the carrots.
Helle Dale is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage
Foundation.
First appeared in the Washington Times