In Russia these days, a lot of old is new again. In fact,
the Russian oil and gas sector's new paradigm can be summarized in
two words: "state domination." The free market has been abandoned.
For example, last December the tax authorities bankrupted YUKOS, a
major oil company, for allegedly failing to pay taxes. The
government sold YUKOS' main production unit, Yuganskneftegaz, to
the state-owned company Rosneft, using a straw company as an
intermediary. Chinese state banks apparently financed the purchase
with $6 billion in loans. To top it off, Rosneft is merging with
state-owned Gazprom, the largest natural gas company in the
world.
And in mid-February, Yuri Trutnev, the Russian Minister of Natural
Resources, has announced that Moscow will keep Western firms from
bidding on major natural resources mining and drilling
licenses.
Thus, the Kremlin, not the private sector, has become the key
decision maker in licensing oil fields, determining the location of
pipelines and approving consortia for production and
transportation.
The biggest problems in the post-YUKOS Russian oil sector are the
intrusive role of the state, overregulation, the violation of
property rights and opaque transactions. Plus, foreign investors
are made to feel unwelcome. Exxon and Total, a French firm,
recently announced that they would scale down involvement in
Russia's oil markets, and capital flight from Russia has increased
from $2.9 billion in 2003 to between $9 billion and $12 billion
last year.
There's reason for the United States to be nervous about this turn
of events. And we're not alone. Vladimir Putin's economic adviser
Andrey Illarionov called the sale of Yuganskneftegaz the "swindle
of the year" and warned that Russia is on its way to joining the
Third World economically. While Illarionov was demoted for his
candor, he was not fired. Clearly, the Russian elite is deeply
divided over energy policy.
But this is about more than energy. Russia's government is using
energy policy to again become a major player on the international
stage.
The government-owned Gazpromneft (the combined Gazprom and Rosneft)
will be a huge global company, bigger than Petroleas de Venezuela
and comparable to Saudi Arabia's Aramco (both state monopolies). It
will function as a potent instrument of Russian foreign policy
throughout the region and around the world.
Russia also wants to play a more robust role in the Commonwealth of
Independent States, Europe and Asia. It is buying up strategic
infrastructure companies, such as pipelines, refineries and
electric grids, as well as ports in Georgia, Hungary and
Ukraine.
Moreover, there are hopes in some quarters that Russia's energy,
supplemented by Iran and Venezuela, can power a global coalition
with China and the Muslim world to offset U.S. hegemony. Russian
officials have hinted that 20 percent of Yuganskneftegaz would be
sold to China. Moscow, meanwhile, is enticing Japan to pay a
whopping $12 billion for the Nakhodka pipeline, a delivery system
that could create competition for Russian oil between China and
Japan in the Far East.
After 9/11, many hoped Russia and Eurasia would provide a welcome
addition, if not an alternative, to Middle East oil. That hope is
now waning. Russian oil still faces many real challenges above and
beyond government re-nationalization. These hurdles include an
antiquated pipeline network (which is a government monopoly) as
well as high production and transportation costs.
The U.S. and Russia are still "energy compatible." One is an
importer and the other an exporter. But the diminishing
attractiveness of investing in Russia's energy sector will hamper
the country's economic development. In addition, Russia's
decision-making elite is split between those who view the takedown
of YUKOS as a heavy-handed operation that caused unacceptable
collateral damage and those who believe that the ends justified the
means.
In order to encourage the Russians to reopen their energy markets,
Washington should condition U.S. agreement to let Russia join the
World Trade Organization (WTO) on the creation of transparent rules
and protection for U.S. companies that invest in Russia. President
Bush also should specifically request that U.S. companies
participate in construction of the Murmansk pipeline and the
Shtokman natural gas project.
Bush can push for those concessions during his visit to Russia in
May to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Allies' victory in
Europe. He should make it clear that Russia's new state control and
opacity conceal corruption, and its nationalist rhetoric covers up
protectionism, backwardness, greed and graft. As a WTO candidate
and G-8 member, Russia cannot afford any of these.
Ariel Cohen is a
Senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies at the
Heritage Foundation.
First appeared on FoxNews.com