Beijing's new anti-secession law can hardly fail to exacerbate
existing tensions in U.S.-China relations. That's because it
undermines the tacit understanding the two countries have long
shared over Taiwan, under which Beijing pretended to pursue a
policy of peaceful unification while Washington pretended to pursue
a one-China policy.
Beijing's side of that understanding has been called into question
by the anti-secession law, the text of which was released
yesterday. It not only refers to the use of "nonpeaceful means,"
but sets open-ended circumstances under which China can resort to
such measures. These include simply deciding that "possibilities
for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted,"
something which China could redefine to mean whatever it
wants.
Also called into question are Beijing's repeated claims that the
bill is simply a response to the Chinese public's clamor for a
national-unification law. That assertion is belied by the
unprecedented secrecy surrounding the legislation's text prior to
its public release yesterday. Fewer than 100 Chinese legislators,
party officials and scholars in Beijing had access to drafts of the
bill prior to its release, and none were permitted to make copies
or even notes about its wording. All were warned that any leaks
would be treated as theft of state secrets and punished
accordingly.
But, despite the lack of details, alarm bells have already been
ringing in Washington for many months about the bill's likely
impact on U.S.-China relations. The Bush administration has been
closely watching the issue ever since it was first publicly raised
last May, during a meeting in London between Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao and a group of overseas Chinese citizens. In private, U.S.
officials repeatedly made clear to Beijing that any attempt to
"redefine" the status quo in the Taiwan Strait would force the
administration to reassess its policy on Taiwan.
Such warnings were conveyed in stringent terms after China publicly
confirmed its intention of introducing an anti-secession law last
Dec. 17, less than a week after Taiwanese voters had removed any
conceivable urgency for such a bill by denying a majority to
pro-independence parties in Taiwan's parliament, the Legislative
Yuan.
That message was conveyed to Chen Yulin, China's top official on
Taiwan affairs, when he visited Washington in early January. Both
the White House and State Department told him in no uncertain terms
that the U.S. viewed the "anti-secession" law as an unhelpful
escalation in cross-Strait rhetoric. Later that month, Deputy
Undersecretary of Defense Richard Lawless and Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Randall Schriver traveled to Beijing and
reiterated Washington's concerns. They warned that Washington was
beginning to see the "continuing substantial increase" in China's
military capabilities as evidence that Beijing was preparing for an
armed showdown. But they got little joy from their Chinese host,
Maj. Gen. Zhang Bangdong, who recited a Chinese proverb. "The tree
may prefer tranquility but the wind will not subside," he said
warning that the winds of independence blowing from Taiwan could
not be ignored.
Rebuffed in private, the Bush administration went public with its
concerns last month. Central Intelligence Agency Director Porter
Goss told a Feb 16. Senate hearing that Beijing's military
modernization buildup, "could tilt the balance of power in the
Taiwan Strait" and "threaten U.S. forces in the region." Three days
later, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld broke new ground in a statement of
"common strategic objectives" with their Japanese counterparts,
Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura and Defense Minister Yoshinori
Ohno. For the first time in the U.S.-Japan alliance's near
half-century of existence, the two countries listed Taiwan among
their common strategic objectives. Although the wording was
anodyne, referring simply to "the peaceful resolution of issues
concerning the Taiwan Strait through dialogue," it was enough to
prompt furious protests from Beijing.
Now, with the text of the bill having finally been made public,
Washington will be studying it closely to see whether Beijing has
irrevocably abandoned any pretense of continuing to pursue a policy
of peaceful reunification. The Bush administration hopes that,
despite all the rhetoric, in the end the Chinese leadership will
opt to ease tensions rather than enflame them.
But if it becomes clear beyond doubt that Beijing has chosen to
abandon its side of the tacit understanding over Taiwan that has
persisted for decades, then there will be little reason for the
U.S. to persist in its side. In the past, it suited Washington's
purposes to pretend it had a one-China policy without drawing
attention to the fact that this does not mean (and has never meant)
that the U.S. recognizes Beijing's territorial claims to
Taiwan.
Now that Beijing's aggressive action in tabling the anti-secession
bill has changed the equation, it is time for a rethink.
John Tkacik is
research fellow for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the Heritage
Foundation, Washington.
First appeared in the Asian Wall Street Journal