President Bush has grabbed the third rail of American politics,
and he isn't letting go. During last year's presidential campaign,
he repeatedly warned Americans that Social Security is in a crisis
and needs to be fixed soon.
The president promised to let Americans invest a portion of their
payroll taxes in personal retirement accounts (PRAs) that they --
the taxpayers -- would control. It's a sensible first step. And the
president is correct. Reform is necessary.
Over the next 75 years, Social Security is
scheduled to pay out $27 trillion more in benefits than it will
take in through payroll taxes. PRAs would close that gap. Without
them we'll have to raise taxes or slash benefits -- or both -- to
keep the program going.
Of course, there are some who still deny the country faces a
problem. "The system is not in crisis; it has money to last for
about the next half century, and even then, if nothing is done the
required benefit cuts would still leave retirees better off than
those getting benefits today," the Minneapolis
Star-Tribune wrote in a recent editorial.
Unfortunately, that assumes that Social Security can really rely on
its trust fund to pay benefits. There are billions of dollars worth
of IOUs in that fund, but no real money. So, in 2018 when the
program starts spending more in benefits than it takes in through
taxes, the government will still need to increase taxes or cut
spending in order to pay those IOUs out of general revenues.
Others argue that some relatively simple fixes today could solve
the problem. A former member of President Clinton's Council of
Economic Advisors sounds this theme. "Social Security does not
confront a crisis," Laura D'Andrea Tyson wrote recently in
BusinessWeek. "In fact, its solvency for future generations can be
ensured through modest benefit reductions and modest revenue
increases."
Well, Congress isn't likely to be eager to allow any reduction in
Social Security benefits. It will always be easier to borrow more
money instead. So let's focus on Tyson's second suggestion:
Increase taxes.
In its most recent report, Social Security's Trustees estimated
that increasing payroll taxes by 1.89 percentage points would put
the program's Age, Survivors and Disability program on solid
footing for the next 75 years.
That may seem like a small price to pay, but a recent study by The
Heritage Foundation's William Beach and Rea Hederman suggests
otherwise. They ran the numbers for a worker who earns $35,000 per
year. For this person, that adds up to $662 each year. That's
enough to buy three months' worth of gasoline, or a months' worth
of groceries for the worker and his spouse.
This proposal is being billed as a small change, but it's clearly
one that would put a big dent in the average family budget. Worse,
for the time being, it wouldn't even work.
Remember, Social Security is currently taking in more than it
spends, and it will keep doing so until 2018. So even if we
increase the surplus going to the trust fund today, it doesn't
matter. The government can't simply store up a pile of cash in a
bank account. It will just use the extra money to buy even more
government bonds, and it will spend the money to build roads, fund
Medicare and pay bureaucrats.
The only way to allow any tax money to pile up is to invest it in
personal accounts -- PRAs. So we're right back where we
started.
People understand that we need to make Social Security an ownership
program if it's going to survive in the 21st century. The
president's plan to allow PRAs would do just that. Maybe that's why
touching the "third rail" is no longer political suicide.
Ed Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation
(heritage.org), a conservative think tank based in
Washington.
COMMENTARY Social Security
Railing Against Reform
Jan 21, 2005 2 min read
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