Imagine for a moment you're talking to a
financial adviser about refinancing your mortgage to get a lower
interest rate and cut your total finance charges. "You shouldn't do
it," he says. "Think of all those points you'll have to pay to get
that mortgage. No, stick with what you have now." Would you take
his advice?
Probably not. Like the millions of other Americans who have
refinanced, you know that what you save over the long term with
your new mortgage more than compensates for anything you pay
upfront.
So why take the same flawed advice when it comes to Social Security
reform?
Critics of personal accounts often point to "transition costs,"
arguing that there will be a huge taxpayer cost associated with
"privatizing" the system. Put that way, it doesn't sound like a
good deal. But this cost, like the points you pay to get your
mortgage, is certainly worth paying in the long run.
To see why, think of Social Security's unfunded long-term
obligations (the gap between promised benefits and projected
payroll taxes) like a giant mortgage. It's not the kind of mortgage
you or I would want because, under current law, it's never paid
off. It's just passed on to our kids and grandkids, and the annual
financing charges will soon start to rise rapidly as the baby
boomers retire. The total charges over just the next 75 years are
projected to be a staggering $27 trillion in inflation-adjusted
dollars, or a $100,000 liability for every working household over
that period.
Part of the idea of reform is to begin to dig out from this hole,
just as you would want to do if you had a mortgage like that.
Now turn to Social Security reform. Advocates of personal accounts
often point to the better financial returns one can expect from
such accounts. But the other advantage is that this kind of reform,
like refinancing a mortgage, will reduce those huge unfunded
liabilities that will burden our children. And just like
refinancing, there are points involved.
Under most reform proposals, younger Americans would be able to
take some of the taxes they now pay to Social Security and put them
instead into a government-regulated personal retirement account.
They'd be opting to get part of their retirement income from this
account instead of relying entirely on traditional Social Security
benefits. Over time, as these workers age, more and more people
likely would have part of their retirement financed through these
accounts.
This reform would have two implications for taxpayers now facing
huge unfunded liabilities in Social Security.
First, as more workers opted to take part of their retirement as
income from personal accounts rather than from Social Security, the
future benefits Social Security have to pay would fall, and so the
unfunded liabilities (i.e., the total finance charges) would
decline quite sharply over time. In fact, if workers could put half
their Social Security payroll taxes into a personal account in
return for halving their traditional Social Security benefits, some
analysts put the drop in those mortgage-style financing charges at
a staggering $20 trillion over 75 years.
Second, there's a cost. When younger workers put some of their
payroll taxes into personal accounts, those taxes don't go into
Social Security, where they would be used to pay other people's
benefits. So workers would have to pay to honor those benefits
until the lower financing charges begin to kick in when today's
younger workers retire. That short-term tab for reducing Social
Security's liabilities is called the "transition cost," and it's
just like the upfront points you pay to get your mortgage charges
down.
Just as many Americans do, of course, we could pay that transition
cost over time, using Treasury bonds that mature over the next 30
years or so.
Like any refinancing opportunity, you would compare the points with
the reduction in financing charges to see how far ahead you'll end
up. In the case of Social Security reform, the transition cost in
the example we've used would be about $7 trillion -- to cut
financing charges by $20 trillion. A pretty good deal.
The numbers in Social Security reform are far larger that anyone
could imagine in a mortgage refinance, but the principle is exactly
the same, and the savings would be huge.
So the next time someone tells you that we shouldn't "privatize"
Social Security because there are transition costs, ask him if he's
ever refinanced a home.
Distributed nationally on the Knight-Ridder Tribune wire