The headlines say it all.
"$85-million U.S. missile test goes nowhere," trumpeted the
Detroit Free Press. "Intercept missile test fails at launch," added
The Associated Press. It's enough to make a long-time supporter of
missile defense think twice, right?
Wrong.
Obviously, the scrubbed test on Dec. 15 wasn't good news. But it
certainly wasn't the end of the program. Nor should it be. The
truth is, we can learn as much when things don't go as planned as
when they do.
Franklin Roosevelt could have been speaking about the early stages
of missile defense when he said of his banking policies, "I have no
expectation of making a hit every time I come to bat." Or as Thomas
Edison said of his efforts to invent the light bulb, "I never
failed once. It just happened to be a 2,000-step process." Well,
building a missile defense system is at least a 2,000-step process.
And the recent test actually was one of the early steps.
In fact, this particular test wasn't necessarily supposed to
demonstrate that a test missile could hit a target missile. We
already know that can be done.
In five out of eight tests, an interceptor missile has knocked
down a test missile. In the most recent successful test, the target
destroyed was some 140 miles above Earth and the missiles collided
at about 15,000 miles per hour. At least 17 similar tests are
planned over the next few years.
The main goal of the recent failed test was to collect information
about the interceptor missile. We'll learn from the failure: Why
did the computer shut down the interceptor? What can we do to make
sure it will launch next time? Experts already are working on these
questions.
And there will be a next time. Because the interceptor missile
never launched, it can be re-used. So scientists will learn from
studying what happened this time, and then learn more from
observing the next test launch.
Also, let's keep in mind that these "mid-phase intercepts" are
among the most difficult challenges any missile-defense system will
have to face. Scientists are attempting to bring down an attack
missile that has already left the planet's atmosphere. By that
time, it's at full speed and isn't generating much heat, so it's
difficult to target. To destroy it, scientists must literally "hit
a bullet with a bullet."
In order to make sure our homeland is as safe as possible, Congress
also should press ahead with research into what's called
"boost-phase" programs. These programs aim to shoot down an enemy
missile at the beginning of its flight, rather than waiting until
it's on the way back down. The boost phase is generally the best
time to attack a missile, because it's moving fairly slowly and
generating plenty of heat as it blasts off.
The best way to keep us safe from missile attack is to put in place
a layered missile defense, where the ground-based inceptors already
in place at Fort Greely, Alaska are combined with boost-phase
inceptors on naval ships and end-phase ("terminal") defenses. That
will give our military several chances to hit an enemy
missile.
To be honest, we'd all like to see every test go perfectly as
planned. But in the real world, that never happens. Even years from
now, when we have a complete system up and running, there's a
slight possibility that a missile will somehow get through the
shield. But at least we'll have done everything possible to shoot
it down.
Building a missile defense shield is a long-term project, one
that's going to involve many successes and occasional setbacks. But
the goal is critical: to protect our cities and our people from a
potential attack.
So let's ignore the negative headlines -- and press on to
success.
Ed Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation
(heritage.org), a conservative think tank based in
Washington.
COMMENTARY Defense
Still on Target
Dec 22, 2004 2 min read
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