Last week, all eyes, including those of Kim Jong Il and his
cohorts in Pyongyang, were focused on Florida, where the first
debate between the two candidates for U.S. president took place.
Kim, unlike the vast majority of the citizens of North Korea, has
access to international media. Which is good for him, as he
received good news. He is likely to have reacted to Senator John
Kerry's declaration that if elected he would pursue direct and
immediate bilateral talks with Kim's regime with glee and
anticipation.
But pursuit of direct bilateral talks with Pyongyang, something the
Bush administration has steadfastly refused, is not only the wrong
approach, but also one that's dangerous and has grave negative
consequences.
Last year, the United States, joined by China, South Korea, Japan
and Russia, embarked upon a multilateral path -- the so-called
Six-Party Talks -- to bring North Korea to the table in order to
place diplomatic pressure on that country to abandon its illicit
nuclear-weapons program. The talks, which were supposed to resume
in late September, are now stalled. The North Korean government has
shown itself to be reluctant to meet prior to the U.S. presidential
elections in November. Apparently it has good reason, given that
Sen. Kerry has played right into North Korea's hands.
Critics, including Sen. Kerry, argue that the Bush administration
has wasted time by choosing the more complex and challenging path
of a multilateral approach with Pyongyang, rather than simply
engaging in direct talks. But President George W. Bush has rejected
the deceptively simpler approach for several irreproachable
reasons.
Eleven years ago, North Korea demanded a range of goodies from the
United States by rattling its nuclear saber, and received them when
the U.S. signed the so-called Agreed Framework. The Clinton
administration took it upon itself to reach a negotiated settlement
with Pyongyang, and America shouldered the mantle of attempting to
enforce nonproliferation upon an unwilling "partner." For its
efforts, the United States received a limited, and ultimately
unsuccessful suspension of part of North Korea's nuclear program.
North Korea later reneged on the deal.
Today, Washington faces the same reluctant and defiant Pyongyang,
but this time it is backed by the firm presence of North Korea's
four neighbors carrying the unified message that North Korea must
abandon its nuclear weapons, completely, verifiably and
irreversibly.
Experience has taught us that North Korea will not do so willingly,
or readily. Pyongyang has already declared a list of demands from
the United States before it will consider giving up its nuclear
development: an end to "hostile" American attitudes; a formal
security guarantee; withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Korean
peninsula; and diplomatic recognition, among other demands.
Washington, however, has remained unswerving in refusing to succumb
to nuclear "blackmail" and has instead focused on building a
coalition against North Korean ultimatums.
Such a multilateral coalition, comprised of both North Korea's
traditional enemies and allies, is critical to any permanent
resolution to the nuclear issue. Without active regional support,
Washington's demands for a complete, verifiable, and irreversible
end to Pyongyang's nuclear programs, will likely fail. The only
hope of persuading North Korea to choose a non-nuclear future is if
no single regional player is willing to accept such a
reality.
Another reason why the bilateral approach with North Korea will
certainly fail is that the United States has little direct leverage
over North Korea. North Korea's inclusion on the U.S. State
Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism prohibits any
American economic or commercial activities in North Korea. And even
without the formal ban, it is unlikely that any profit-minded
American business would willingly enter the North Korean "market,"
given its status as one of the most closed in the world. The United
States continues to be one of the largest donors of official food
aid to North Korea -- food aid amounted to more than $26 million in
2004 alone -- but Washington has long followed a policy of not
using humanitarian aid as a political tool.
China and South Korea have the most direct influence over
Pyongyang: the former through its historical alliance and decades
of unofficial financial and material support, and the latter with
vastly increased levels of trade and cash payments. Arguably,
Russia and Japan also have more leverage over Pyongyang than
Washington, witnessed by North Korea's admission in 2002 to Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi that, yes, it has kidnapped Japanese
citizens. This was ostensibly a wild gamble by Kim Jong Il to gain
desperately needed economic assistance and diplomatic recognition
from Japan.
Washington does possess one very valuable "carrot" vis-à-vis
North Korea: the potential for diplomatic relations with Pyongyang,
which should be the focus of bilateral talks. But it would be
foolish to even consider squandering away this carrot now, when
North Korea has done nothing but make threats. Washington should
hold on to this valuable tool until North Korea has shown its
willingness to be a responsible and trustworthy negotiating
partner, not use it as inducement to merely show up at the
table.
Finally, the pursuit of bilateral talks with North Korea will harm
the ability of the United States to achieve other outstanding
issues with that country. In addition to that country's illicit
pursuit of nuclear programs, which violates at least four
international and bilateral agreements, North Korea remains an
ever-imposing threat based on the fact that it continues to build
up its military; despite mass starvation at home. It also has a
record of state-sponsored terrorism, and a continued hostile stance
toward South Korea. Its continued brutality toward its own people
through wide-spread human rights violations is well known, as is
its involvement in international drug and human trafficking. These
threats require strong and unified action by North Korea's
neighbors, if not the entire international community, which is why
a multilateral and not a bilateral approach is necessary.
Thus, the United States should not consider altering its current
multilateral approach toward North Korea. Anything else will
provide North Korea with a strategic and diplomatic victory, and
will likely embolden Pyongyang, which has a well-established
pattern of capitalizing on differences among allies. The United
States acting alone cannot terminate North Korea's nuclear
ambitions, which are the real source of threat to international
security and stability. It must work with its partners in the
region to find a permanent solution.
Ms. Hwang is the Northeast Asia policy analyst at the
Washington D.C.-based Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in the The Asian Wall Street Journal