The U.S. has a simple task ahead as a second round of talks on
North Korea's nuclear program gets underway in Beijing today. The
Bush administration must remain firm in its stated stance that
nothing less than "complete, verifiable and irreversible"
dismantlement of all of the North's nuclear programs will be
acceptable. To do otherwise at this juncture is to risk future
perils by postponing the inevitable: a nuclear Korean peninsula and
instability in Northeast Asia.
Though a complete resolution is extremely unlikely during the round
that starts today, the meetings will nevertheless reaffirm a
tenuous but growing regional consensus among the other nations that
take part -- China, Japan, Russia and South Korea -- that North
Korea must take action to dismantle its program. China and South
Korea remain unconvinced of some important issues. The message to
them should be that the future of these "Six Party" talks as a
forum for discussions with North Korea depends on Beijing and Seoul
not allowing Pyongyang to drive a wedge among the other five.
The current standoff began in October 2002, when North Korea
admitted to U.S. officials that it was pursuing a highly enriched
uranium program in violation of several international agreements,
including the 1994 Agreed Framework signed with the Clinton
administration. When the United States suspended fuel oil shipments
to North Korea because Pyongyang had violated the Agreed Framework,
North Korea responded by ejecting U.N. inspectors from its
plutonium facility in Yongbyon. It then, for good measure,
restarted its reactors and declared its withdrawal from the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
North Korea's position is that its nuclear arms programs are a
defensive response to hostility shown by the Bush administration.
The communist regime therefore demands security guarantees in
addition to diplomatic recognition from the United States before it
begins to dismantle its program. But Pyongyang's claims are
spurious. North Korea's nuclear programs go back to the 1990s, well
before George W. Bush became president. Moreover, North Korea
already possesses a successful deterrent against potential U.S.
military action: its conventional forces, which include a
million-man army arrayed at the border with South Korea and which
is capable of destroying Seoul.
Disagreement over who does what first was at the heart of the
discussions during the first round of talks last September. This
week's meetings will likely focus on questions about North Korea's
separate program to produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear
weapons. In a complete reversal of its admission in October 2002,
Pyongyang has since vehemently denied the existence of a uranium
program. Nevertheless, U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton
made it clear last week that the North would have to fess up about
its uranium program, as it has about the plutonium one, and agree
to verifiably dismantle both. North Korea's continued denial of a
uranium program will only damage the possibility of continuing
future negotiations.
Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan's recent confessions
that he sold North Korea the technology to enrich uranium has
strengthened Washington's position, and will put paid to questions
about U.S. intelligence capabilities. Skepticism among the other
four parties -- particularly China and South Korea -- about the
uranium programs will likely embolden North Korea, which has a
pattern of capitalizing on uncertainty by driving wedges among
allies.
Given these challenges, during the talks in Beijing the United
States should make clear that the uranium issue is not solely
bilateral. Although the plutonium program is generally considered a
more immediate threat than a uranium one, North Korea's pursuit of
both programs seriously jeopardizes security in the region and the
global non-proliferation regime.
China and South Korea worry that U.S. insistence on including the
uranium program in this round of talks may be unacceptable to North
Korea and cause a rupture in the talks. But the United States must
not relent on inclusion of this issue. To do so would give North
Korea a diplomatic and strategic victory, and reduce the Six-Party
format to nothing more than a hollow forum for diplomatic niceties.
Postponing the identification of all the issues of contention with
North Korea only guarantees that it will pose an even greater
challenge in the future.
Thus, a North Korean "freeze" of the Yongbyon facility will be
inadequate, and the United States should not accept it even as a
temporary measure, let alone make concessions. To do so would
seriously undermine the principled U.S. stand on global
non-proliferation, and would allow North Korea to revert to its old
pattern of extorting concessions from the international community.
Any freeze by Pyongyang is a necessary but insufficient condition
for the permanent goal of denuclearizing the Korean
peninsula.
The primary goal of the next round of Six-Party talks in Beijing
should be to keep alive this existing mechanism of dialogue, but if
and only if it can become a forum for identifying the real source
of threat to international security and stability: North Korea's
nuclear ambitions. Though we're unlikely to see major breakthroughs
this time, Libya's recent decision to give up its weapons programs
shows that earnest and concerted diplomacy can yield success.
Verification of North Korea's nuclear dismantlement will be the
next great challenge, hopefully to be addressed at future talks.
For now, this week's talks should aim to guarantee that North Korea
will address all its nuclear programs and nothing less.
Ms. Hwang is the policy analyst for Northeast Asia at the Asian
Studies Center of the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C.
First appeared in the The Asian Wall Street Journal