For a man so clearly destined to be China's supreme leader,
Vice President Hu Jintao has rarely dealt with U.S. issues. And the
few times he has done so, he always seems to have come away soured
by the experience.
His visit to the U.S. this week is unlikely to be any different.
Despite Mr. Hu's image in the Chinese leadership as a "reformist"
and his daughter's ongoing residence in the U.S., Mr. Hu is not
necessarily well-disposed toward America.
Mr. Hu has been at the pinnacle of power in Beijing -- the
seven-man Politburo Standing Committee --
for nearly a decade, and from his first day in office he has been
seen as the likely successor to Jiang Zemin, who is concurrently
the country's president, the party's general secretary and the
military's commander-in-chief. For his first seven years, Mr. Hu
managed to avoid getting mired in controversies surrounding
Beijing's tortured relationship with Washington.
His baptism of fire came the evening after U.S. bombs hit the
Chinese embassy in Belgrade on May 8, 1999. Beijing's top leaders,
faced with two days of emotional anti-American demonstrations by
students and youths in several Chinese cities, turned to their
youngest colleague, Hu Jintao (still a youngster at the age of 56),
to calm the storm.
At 6 p.m. on May 9, Mr. Hu appeared live on national television,
itself a rare, if not unprecedented move for any Chinese leader in
a crisis, and he appeared ill at ease reading from a prepared text.
The "U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization," he declared,
"brazenly attacked our embassy" killing personnel and destroying
the building. It was, he said, a "criminal" and "barbaric act." He
noted that the "students and people" bespoke the Chinese people's
"great indignation." But Mr. Hu was cautious. While the Chinese
government "firmly supported all legal protests," he urged the
people to "take into consideration the country's
fundamental interests" and "guard against any
overreactions."
It was a speech he wrote himself, and which reflected his own
conflicting views of the U.S. Mr. Hu is deeply suspicious of
America's preeminent superpower status yet these are tempered by
his references against overreaction and for the need to protect
national interests.
As early as 1994, according to a reputable Hong Kong journal, Mr.
Hu told a secret party meeting that "strangling China's
development" was "a strategic principle pursued by the U.S." And
one Chinese scholar reports that after the bombing of the Chinese
embassy in Belgrade, Mr. Hu told a closed-door conference of party
and government workers that "the hostile forces in the U.S. will
never give up their attempts to subjugate China."
More recently, on April 1, 2001, another U.S.-China crisis erupted
when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. Navy reconnaissance
plane over the South China Sea. In the absence of President Jiang,
who was on a tour of Latin America, Mr. Hu took charge of the
affair. By the time the crisis was over, Mr. Hu no doubt felt
bullied by Washington, which used a pending decision over whether
to continue China's "Normal Trade Relations" status to exert overwhelming leverage. But he also
felt whipsawed by his own military, which had at least
prevaricated, and probably outright lied, in stating that the U.S.
was to blame for the incident.
As he now approaches the transition, Mr. Hu is obliged to take an
increasingly high profile on foreign policy matters. In January
2002, he set up an informal task force on U.S. issues charged with
improving China's public-relations image, especially in the U.S.
Congress, and developing long-term strategies for handling the
Taiwan issue. Mr. Hu has gathered his own team to oversee China's
relations with the U.S. headed by Zheng Bijian, vice president of
the Central Party School, and Zhang Qizheng, director of the State
Council Information Office. Although both are considered "political
reformers," neither has a track record of advocating close ties
with Washington.
Taiwan remains the main irritant in U.S.-China relations, and how
Mr. Hu performs in Washington on this issue will be closely watched
in Beijing as a measure of his success. That means he will have to
take a rhetorically firm posture on American "hegemonism" in
general and on Washington's firming ties with Taipei in particular.
En route to the U.S. last week, the Chinese vice president told an
audience in Malaysia that China "opposes the strong lording it over
the weak and the big bullying the small and has long pledged not to
seek
hegemony, not to join any military bloc, and not to pursue its own
spheres of influence."
Americans can expect similar rhetoric, although a sharp message on issues such as Taiwan will be softened if Mr. Hu can also address his vision for the development of U.S.-China economic and trade ties.
In Washington, the success of the visit will be seen in the
impression he makes on his American interlocutors. Will U.S.
President George W. Bush get an idea of where Mr. Hu plans to take
China? Will Vice President Dick Cheney be impressed that Mr. Hu is
committed to continuing political as well as economic reforms? And
will U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld decide Mr. Hu is
someone he can deal with? If so, Americans will consider the visit
a success. But if Mr. Hu allows his apparent mistrust of American
power -- and the sourness of his past dealings with the U.S. -- to
come through in his words, Americans will view his rise to power in
Beijing with some alarm.
John J.
Tkacik, Jr., is a research fellow at the Heritage
Foundation in Washington, D.C. He is a retired officer in the U.S.
foreign service who served in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong and
Taipei.
Originally appeared in the Asian Wall Street Journal.