Before we begin talking about ways to reform Social Security,
consider: If the system had never existed and was proposed as new
legislation in its current form, would it pass?
No way. Liberals would oppose the program as patently unjust - and
they would be right. The fact is that many current workers will pay
more in Social Security taxes than they'll ever collect in
benefits, as my Heritage Foundation colleague William Beach showed
in a pioneering study published seven years ago.
As President Bush noted recently, "African-American males die sooner than other males do, which means the system is inherently unfair to a certain group of people." Yet New York Times columnist Paul Krugman attacked Beach's work as a pillar in the Bush philosophy, calling it "bigotry."
In his State of the Union address, the president ruled out any
of the hysteria used to scare seniors: "[F]or every American who is
55 or older: Do not let anyone mislead you. For you the Social
Security system will not change in any way." Minutes after the
speech, the official Democratic response said the reform was more
like "roulette" in Las Vegas.
You are witnessing knee-jerk liberalism.
Mindless partisanship has gotten in the way of the liberal
traditional instinct to fight injustice. But the injustice of
Social Security in its present form is plain. Problem number one:
Social Security can be made solvent only if newborns are force-fed
higher taxes than any retirees ever faced. Problem number two: the
program is unfair to poor Americans who die young - Social Security
takes a tithe from their labor and gives nothing in return.
Defenders deny that, of course. They say Social Security has a
massive trust fund that is still growing, which implies
solvency.
But Americans need to know that the trust fund is a fiction. It's
simply a no-interest funnel to big government spending. The money
collected through "Social Security" taxes is spent immediately by
politicians on government salaries, welfare, debt service and
foreign aid, not to mention pork that has nothing to do with
retirement. That's why personal accounts matter so much. Ten
dollars in hand are worth so much more than ten dollars in
theory.
The right way to think about the promises made by Social Security
is to think of a pie. Five people have been promised a slice, but
there are only four pieces. The oldest three generations get their
slices first, meaning that today's 20-and 30-somethings and their
children will have to split one piece into two slivers. Is that
justice?
Here's the alternative you hear from many on the left: raise taxes
to pay for another slice of pie. But let's remember that Social
Security taxes have been raised 14 times in 35 years. This
"alternative" might make sense if it were a tax on consumption that
all Americans pay. But no. This is a tax on wage labor, set
squarely on the shoulders of the young.
But economists are starting to appreciate that labor supply
responds to taxation. If you increase taxes on gasoline or
cigarettes, supply and demand for them contracts. This rule of
elasticity applies to labor as well, which is a small revolution
for economists who long treated labor as inelastic. That's what the
micro evidence indicated, but aggregate labor is more than a sum of
parts, which is good news. As Nobel Laureate Ed Prescott explains
in a 2004 paper, promises of future Social Security benefits can
only be met with lower, not higher, payroll taxes. With personal
retirement accounts, Prescott projects a level shift in national
hours of work, production, and even wages.
Let's remember that when Social Security was created, it was an
insurance system. It was supposed to ensure that nobody would have
to suffer destitution in old-age. It acted as a kind of "death"
insurance: If you lived "too long," it would protect you from your
inability to earn money.
As the generosity of benefits grew ever larger and American
longevity rose over the decades, the mindset changed, but not the
math. Now Social Security is thought of as a retirement program.
Big difference.
What has evolved is a system of retirement payments that is
generous for the healthy by punishing the unhealthy, and unlucky.
What if you die from cancer at age 53? Your family gets far less
than if your retirement fund was a personal account, and possibly
nothing. The fact that blacks die younger on average than whites
means the current system is unabashedly biased against them. And
the family of any person of any ethnicity who dies at 63 is likely
to get stiffed by the trustees. Nothing personal. No, really:
nothing personal.
Most people who set aside 12.4 percent of their entire lifetime
income would not plan to donate that nest egg to Uncle Sam in case
of an untimely early death. Sadly, that's what's happening now. But
change is within reach, a change that converts labor taxes to
personal savings, and offers every American real retirement choices
and control. The growth surge Prescott predicts is just icing on
the cake. Or perhaps, icing on the pie.
Tim Kane is a research fellow in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation. He is a veteran Air Force intelligence officer, and former San Diego software entrepreneur.
First appeared in the San Diego Union Tribune