Even if
Congress doesn't allow workers to invest part of their Social
Security taxes in private accounts, it will have to address a
growing problem with Social Security: The system is heading into
bankruptcy, largely because future retirees are being promised much
more money than current retirees are.
Today, Social Security
consumes 4.28 percent of the economy. It sends checks to nearly 48
million people, and average earners receive about $15,000 per year
from the national pension program. Within 20 years, it will pay
more than $19,000 -- on average -- to 84 million retirees and
consume nearly 6 percent of the economy. And by 2055, it will pay
out $25,000 to retirees who earned average wages.
At first, we think: Of course. Social Security benefits are
supposed to keep pace with inflation. But it turns out that the
numbers in the previous paragraph already are adjusted for
inflation. In other words, future retirees are being promised much
larger benefits compared to what current retirees receive.
Rising benefit levels are a fiscal time bomb for Social Security.
Within 75 years, Social Security's deficit will reach $27 trillion
-- or more than $100,000 for every working household in America at
that time.
Part of the problem is, of course, a huge demographic shift brought
on by the retirement of the 77-million-strong baby boom generation,
which begins in three years, and by quantum leaps in life
expectancy brought on by improvements in medical science and diet.
In 1935, the average 65-year-old could expect to live about 12.6
more years. By 2040, a 65-year-old can expect to live another 19
years.
But a large part of Social Security's fiscal crisis comes from
these unnecessary increases in benefits. They place a burden on the
economy that will lead to economic decline. (See much of western
Europe, particularly France and Germany, where aging populations
and huge government outlays for them have led to economic
stagnation and double-digit unemployment.) Also, these increases
encourage workers not to save for their own retirements but to rely
on a program that was designed as a safety net, not as a sole
source of income for retirees. Even most opponents of President
Bush's plan admit that Social Security faces huge long-term
deficits, and those deficits will only worsen if the increased
benefit levels aren't addressed.
Fortunately, policy-makers can lighten the load on future
generations by making changes to the way future retirement benefits
are calculated. Making these changes now will allow workers to
better plan for the future. Besides, reform will be much more
difficult and expensive if we wait.
Current retirees and those close to retirement, perhaps age 55 and
above, should receive every cent they are promised. They fulfilled
their obligations, and it would be unfair to change their benefit
levels now and ask them to build additional private savings or
develop alternate sources of income for retirement.
It does make sense, though, to adjust the growth of younger
workers' retirement benefits. There is no reason why future
retirees should receive substantially more income -- adjusted for
inflation -- than current retirees. And those more than 10 years
from retirement have plenty of time to adjust.
Several nations already have undertaken similar reforms. Some, such
as Britain and Sweden, have slowed the growth of benefits as part
of an overall reform that includes personal retirement accounts. In
other cases, such as Germany, rising benefit levels are being
curtailed solely as part of a cost-saving exercise.
One thing is certain. If we make no effort to control costs, Social
Security will hit a fiscal brick wall in the not-too-distant
future. Today's policy-makers should protect future retirees from
that crisis.
Daniel J. Mitchell is the McKenna fellow in political
economy at The Heritage Foundation.
Distributed nationally on the Knight-Ridder Tribune wire