Donald Trump and Narendra Modi Can Transform U.S.-India Relations

COMMENTARY International Economies

Donald Trump and Narendra Modi Can Transform U.S.-India Relations

Feb 14, 2025 6 min read
COMMENTARY BY
Jeff M. Smith

Director, Asian Studies Center

Jeff Smith is Director of The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a joint press conference at the White House on February 13, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Andrew Harnik / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

India-U.S. ties thrived during the first Trump administration. The two governments inked several key diplomatic and defense agreements.

The two governments speak the same language about national sovereignty, freedom of navigation, the Indo-Pacific, and a no-nonsense approach to terrorism.

There is every reason to believe this flourishing partnership will reach new heights in the years ahead.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the popular Indian leader elected to a third term last summer, is in town this week to meet with President Donald Trump and kickstart a new era in the growing India-U.S. strategic partnership.

While some U.S. partners and allies met the news of Trump’s election victory with a degree of trepidation, India was not among them. India-U.S. ties thrived during the first Trump administration. The two governments inked several key diplomatic and defense agreements, started new joint military exercises, and revived the highly significant Quad grouping joining four democracies—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—with shared and growing concerns about China’s rise.

The Indian and U.S. militaries are now refueling each other at sea, U.S. warships are being maintained at Indian shipyards, and the two intelligence communities are comparing notes on Chinese naval deployments. When China engaged in a deadly border clash with Indian soldiers in 2020, President Trump ordered the swift delivery of military and intelligence support.

The two leaders have repeatedly demonstrated a good personal rapport and mutual affinity. They famously appeared together before 50,000 cheering American fans at the “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas. And similarly participated in the “Namaste Trump” rally that gathered over 100,000 adoring Indians in Gujarat.

There are other good omens. Leading national security officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz are well-known, longstanding boosters of India-U.S. ties: Waltz recently served as co-chair of the Congressional India Caucus while one of Secretary Rubio’s first official meetings was with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

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So too are scores of key mid-ranking officials beginning to populate positions across the Trump administration. Even Elbridge Colby, one of the administration’s more high-profile critics of U.S. allies failing to pull their weight, has consistently praised India for taking its own defense seriously and being “hard-nosed and realistic.”

“India is exactly the kind of ally we need in this time,” he explained last year.

The two governments speak the same language about national sovereignty, freedom of navigation, the Indo-Pacific, and a no-nonsense approach to terrorism. Finally, while India is closely watching the unfolding visa debate in the United States, many in the Modi administration have for years felt under assault by the “deep state” and the liberal-woke ecosystem now in the crosshairs of the Trump administration.

In other words, most signs point toward continued growth in India-U.S. ties ahead. Prime Minister Modi’s visit is likely to set the tone for the next phase of U.S.-India engagement, particularly in trade, defense, and regional security.

Here are a few things we’re expecting and hoping to see this week, and in the months ahead.

Starting a new India-U.S. Trade Corridor

One of the bigger missed opportunities in the first Trump administration was a limited trade deal the two sides nearly completed but failed to get over the finish line. They should not only pick up where they left off; they should think bigger. They should frame their economic cooperation agenda around the concept of a grand economic corridor: a two-way channel binding and strengthening both nations.

The Modi government has been gradually implementing economic reforms but has been laser-focused on attracting investment in India. While this is understandable, and U.S. investors should continue seeking opportunities in this large and fast-growing market, the Modi government should shift its paradigm. It should view outbound investments, particularly into the United States, as just as vital to India’s economic growth, security, and standing in the world.

India should invest in America not as charity but because America is the safest investment destination and most vibrant free market in the world; because India needs advanced technology and expertise; and because this corridor will only reinforce the strategic alignment taking place at the diplomatic, geopolitical, and people-to-people levels.

In fact, it would behoove both capitals to increasingly view the U.S. and Indian economies as synergistic and mutually reinforcing systems, particularly as they both seek to reduce their considerable strategic dependencies on their mutual rival, China. In the years ahead, the United States will be looking to shift sensitive supply chains back home, and to non-Chinese sources. India is well-positioned to meet some of that demand if it can seize the opportunity.

Defense and Security: Building on Trump-Era Foundations

India-U.S. defense ties sprinted forward during Trump 1.0, with several foundational defense agreements, major arms sales, and the revitalization of the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative.

In one of the rare areas of bipartisan agreement, the Biden administration sought to build on this cooperation with initiatives like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology and the India-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem. While the Trump administration may seek to re-organize or repackage these initiatives, it is important to maintain the trajectory and momentum driving them.

Several defense deals are on the table or in various stages of completion. This includes an important jet-engine co-production arrangement with General Electric that still needs to get over the finish line. India has additionally expressed interest in purchasing more maritime surveillance aircraft, transport aircraft, sonobuoys, and helicopters. There are also new purchases on the table like the Javelin missiles and Stryker combat vehicles.

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Meanwhile, the U.S. shipbuilding industry is in disrepair while China controls more than 50% of global shipbuilding capacity. With India making major moves to revitalize its own shipbuilding industry and the door recently opened to U.S.-India warship repair arrangements, there could be major opportunities ahead.

Finally, the two sides should seriously explore opportunities for an India-U.S. Joint Innovation Fund that would buttress U.S. technological leadership while nurturing Indian startups that can provide scale and supply chain resilience to U.S. innovation. The Fund, which might receive initial support from Indian conglomerates, would invest in U.S. and Indian startups in the dual-use, defense, aerospace, and space sectors. The products and solutions could also create a China-alternative option for markets in the Global South.

Looking Ahead

The 21st century India-U.S. embrace is built not atop slogans about the oldest and largest democracies, a shared language, or cross-cultural affinity. It is built on the simple recognition that our vital national interests and ambitions are often closely aligned, and rarely ever in direct conflict. Our economies are basically complimentary. And there’s an implicit degree of trust and familiarity in the relationship that neither of us enjoys with China. That counts for a lot.

This article has barely scratched the surface. The seemingly endless scope of India-U.S. cooperation has now expanded to arenas like space and “planetary defense.” There is ample room to take the Quad grouping to new heights and to dramatically expand the India-U.S. energy partnership, and pursue joint initiatives on critical minerals, nuclear technology, cyber security, maritime domain awareness, and biosecurity.

In short, there is every reason to believe this flourishing partnership will reach new heights in the years ahead.

This piece originally appeared in 1945

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