On Sunday, Ukrainians flocked to vote in the early parliamentary
elections. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
found the votes free and fair despite fears of fraud.
The decision to hold early elections was a compromise between
President Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of Our Ukraine-Self Defense
bloc, known by its Ukrainian acronym NUNS, and Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovych, who heads Ukraine's Regions party. Under the
Ukrainian constitution, if a single political party does not
receive a majority of the seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament),
a coalition must form the Cabinet of Ministers.
After the March 2006 elections, the pro-Western "Orange
Coalition," which led the country's democratic revolution in
2004-2005, headed by Mr. Yushchenko and former Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko and her BYuT bloc, was unable to successfully form a
parliamentary majority.
As the result, Oleksandr Moroz, leader of the Socialist Party of
Ukraine, who initially supported the Orange forces, defected to the
Yanukovych camp, forming the Anti-Crisis Coalition with the Party
of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine. Mr. Yanukovych then
proceeded to gnaw on Mr. Yushchenko's presidential powers, painting
the president into the corner and triggering the recent
elections.
The election results, still too close to call, are a sign of
increased political competition and a tribute to Ukraine's
democratic development. The "orange" blocs - Mrs. Tymoshenko's BYuT
and Mr. Yushchenko's NUNS - both received more support than
pre-election polls anticipated.
BYuT's performance was particularly surprising: more than 30
percent of the popular vote, up nearly 10 percent from the March
2006 elections. Mrs. Tymoshenko's increased popularity,
particularly in central and eastern regions, which previously
supported Mr. Yanukovych, will not only give her legitimacy as
prime minister but place her in an excellent position for the 2009
presidential elections. However, Mr. Yanukovych promised to scuttle
the elections by dissolving his party, if the outcome is not to his
taste.
The necessity to form a new coalition has led Mr. Yushchenko to
negotiate again with Mrs. Tymoshenko, who outperformed Mr.
Yushchenko's Our Ukraine/People's Self-Defense by more than 2:1.
Relations between Mr. Yushchenko and Mrs. Tymoshenko have been
strained since Mrs. Tymoshenko was fired as prime minister after
being accused of mishandling the economy.
Still, Mrs. Tymoshenko may return as prime minister after the
impressive electoral performance Sunday. While some have predicted
a Yushchenko-Yanukovych coalition, but only 6 percent of Ukrainians
polled support such an outcome.
With pro-democracy forces returning to power in the Rada, it is
hoped the next Cabinet can address several key issues. Ukraine has
experienced significant political turmoil since the Orange
Revolution, often leaving the government paralyzed and unable to
address important policy issues.
In particular, the Ukrainian parliament should pass substantial
constitutional reforms to prevent further institutional crises.
Among the constitutional changes needed for a stronger democracy in
Ukraine are clearly defined delineation of power for the president
and prime minister and between various ministers.
Ukraine may benefit greatly from a shorter time limit for forming
a government and approving the candidacy of the prime minister. The
country's political system also needs well-defined grounds and
procedures for dissolving the Rada by the president, and a more
accountable and precise organizational chart for "power" ministers,
including law enforcement, interior, security services and
defense.
Ukrainians also hope for economic reforms in line with free-market
principles. Ukraine's economy suffered considerably on the Party of
Regions' watch, seeing price controls on some commodities and
excessive and arbitrary regulations of sales of crucial commodities
such as natural gas and grain.
Mrs. Tymoshenko's prior performance as prime minister drew lots of
criticism from within and outside the country, but her surprising
achievement last Sunday may give local and foreign investors hope
for a liberalized, investor-friendly economy.
While talk of full NATO and European Union membership remains
premature, Washington is expected to continue supporting Ukraine's
Euro-Atlantic agenda. More hands-on engagement from the EU would be
welcome.
Though Ukraine remains highly divided on the key foreign policy
issue of NATO membership, it is hoped the renewed power of
pro-Western forces will break the country's political deadlock and
allow the government to make significant strides, including
Ukraine's final negotiations for World Trade Organization
membership.
Much of the new coalition's success will be determined by how
committed it is to actively pursuing anti-corruption reforms.
Unfortunately, some of Mr. Yanukovych's close Cabinet associates
were on the corruption A list. President Yushchenko has also failed
to fulfill his campaign promise to "put the bandits in jail." Some
of his supporters were uncomfortably close to the highly lucrative
and opaque oil and gas trade. As the result, Ukraine's energy
security suffered, while key pipelines, such as
Odessa-Brody-Gdansk, remained unfinished.
Finally, the murder of journalist Georgiy Gongadze, a catalyst in
the Orange Revolution, remains unsolved, as has the related
"suicide" of Yuri Kravchenko, who was interior minister during
Leonid Kuchma 1994-2005 term as president.
Ukraine's powerful oligarchs continue to protect their financial
interests by funding all political parties. Without full commitment
to fighting corruption, Ukraine may remain in a limbo of
postcommunist transition.
Ukraine's democratic breakthrough, increasingly rare in the former
Soviet bloc, is challenged by a system entrenched in high-level
corruption. Transparency and executive competence are essential
role for the future of democratic governance in Ukraine.
Ariel Cohen is senior
research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and senior adviser to
the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council.
First appeared in the Washington Times