This month, Mexican voters enjoyed their second truly democratic
presidential election since the 2000 vote ended seven decades of
single-party rule. For their good faith, they wound up with a minor
squabble that's become a major controversy.
It isn't a real crisis like the 1988 election. Then, the ruling
party won when results changed during a suspicious computer outage.
Rather, it's the sort of crisis that occurs when the contest is
close, candidates get anxious, and bad judgment goes on a
roll.
Both leading contenders helped stoke the fires, but one clearly
more than the other.
Months before the elections, former Mexico City mayor and
candidate for the leftist Democratic Revolutionary party (PRD)
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (he's known as AMLO for
his initials) snubbed the first televised debate. Closer to the
election, he questioned the professionalism of Federal Electoral
Institute (IFE) and predicted fraud on election day, strategically
planting doubts in the process.
For his part, conservative Felipe Calderón of the National
Action party (PAN) claimed in TV ads that AMLO would rule like
Venezuela's authoritarian president Hugo Chávez.
López Obrador responded that Calderón stood for the
rich while he served the poor, thus framing the debate as a class
struggle - a dangerous thing in Mexico where 40 percent of the
population lives under the poverty line and only 60 percent of
youths enroll in secondary school.
As tallies came in on election night, IFE president Luis Carlos
Ugalde told TV viewers that with less than a percentage point
separating the two candidates, it wasn't possible to predict the
outcome until tally sheets from all 300 electoral districts were
tabulated - a process that could take days.
Within minutes, AMLO told a national TV audience that he had won
by more than 500,000 votes. "I ask that electoral authorities
respect our results," he warned. Calderón then felt
compelled to pronounce, "We have not the slightest doubt that we've
won the presidential election."
Later, AMLO claimed there were 3 million missing votes, which all
parties knew were on tally sheets that were hard to read or filled
out wrong. Calderón was still ahead when those votes were
added in. By the end of IFE's full tabulation on July 6, the PAN
candidate had won by a slim margin of 244,000 out of some 41
million votes.
In the bad old days, when the ruling Institutional Revolutionary
party dominated government through bribes and vote rigging, just
about every election was a crisis. Since 2000, Mexico's Federal
Electoral Institute has conducted efficient, transparent contests
with easy-to-read paper ballots. Just big X's next to names and
party symbols. Invited to observe, the European Council reported "a
grade of transparency and confidence on the part of the population
in the political process without precedent and rarely observed in
the rest of the world."
Although, PRD poll workers noted a smooth vote on election day,
López Obrador alleged fraud in ever more hyperbolic terms.
The following Saturday, he called crowds of PRD faithful into
Mexico City's Zócalo or central square to press for a full
hand recount and even a supreme court decision to declare the
election illegal. Specific ballot packages may only be unsealed if
there is evidence of mistakes or tampering and the high court
doesn't hear electoral disputes.
Few outside the PRD are following AMLO's lead. Intellectuals like
Carlos Fuentes and politicos otherwise in sync with his liberal
agenda don't think the election was rigged. The more AMLO invents
charges and whips crowds into hysterics, the more he looks like a
dangerous demagogue. Asked by reporters if he would accept a loss
confirmed by a full recount, he said he won the election and would
not give it up.
Though quick to anger, AMLO's not dumb. And while he may not
obtain a complete recount, he monopolize center stage as he claims
the rich "stole victory from the poor." That makes it crucial for
Felipe Calderón to make the poor his priority. Fortunately
his predecessor, President Fox, has laid a broad foundation for
that through free market reforms that have ensured economic growth
and balanced accounts.
While AMLO would use impose higher corporate taxes to pay for
social programs, making Mexico less competitive in global markets,
Calderón must make the marketplace, rule of law, and better
education accessible to Mexico's less prosperous multitudes.
Employment will only rise when Mexico is more competitive and job
seekers have more choices.
Despite the anxiety, a close election can be a blessing. It
educates voters about the process, and shows that choices truly
depend on who casts a ballot. When all the dust settles, it'll be
up to Felipe Calderón to combine AMLO's concern for the poor
with the PAN's reasoned free-market policies to steer Mexico in the
right direction. But first, López Obrador needs to state his
complaint. And if he loses, learn to accept defeat honorably unless
he wants to confirm fears that he is, indeed, another Hugo
Chávez.
Stephen Johnson
is senior policy analyst for Latin America in the Davis Institute
for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation.
First Appeared in National Review Online