Next weekend's meeting between President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin before the Group of Eight (G-8) summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, will likely mark a new post-Cold War low in U.S.-Russian relations.
Naturally, both sides will try to put a "happy face" on the
Bush-Putin meet - witness attempts to paper over the troubles with
a newly-proposed nuclear-cooperation agreement. But serious
disagreements remain over key issues, ranging from North Korea to
Iran to energy security.
While we should seek Russian cooperation wherever possible, it's
time for Bush to have a heart-to-heart with Putin about the state -
and future course - of U.S.-Russian relations.
Bush has hustled to improve bilateral bonds - holding an early
summit with Putin in 2001, pursuing a close personal relationship
with "Vlad" and even defending the Russian leader before a rising
chorus of Western critics. Unfortunately, this hasn't paid
off.
Putin's preference this weekend will be for ceremony and photo-ops
celebrating Russia's G-8 "coming out" - not for dealing with tough
policy matters. Bush, on the other hand, has a weighty to-do list
to raise with his host.
With last week's missile salvo, North Korea now tops the agenda.
Expect Bush and other gathered leaders - particularly Japan's Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi - to press Putin over his "go easy, go
slow" approach on North Korea at the United Nations.
Of course, Putin may counter that, beyond the Security Council,
Russia has little direct influence over North Korea. Pyongyang was
a Russian protégé during the Cold War, but now the
relationship is mostly limited to nostalgia about the good old
days.
But Putin does have pull with Iran. Moscow sells Tehran billions
in conventional arms, and assists Iran's nuclear program.
Unfortunately, though, Russia is running the same interference at
the United Nation for Tehran as it is for Pyongyang.
Going along with Uncle Sam isn't Putin's only reason to act here.
While a nuclear North Korea isn't a threat to Russia, a nuclear
Iran could certainly feel emboldened to export fundamentalism to
Russia's soft-underbelly in Central Asia - or, worse yet,
Chechnya.
Meanwhile, most everyone is antsy about Russia's growing energy
prowess. Russia is the world's No. 2 oil exporter - and holds 65
percent of proven global natural-gas reserves.
Energy today is what the Red Army was during the Cold War: the
source of Mother Russia's strength. With oil at $75 a barrel, and
demand anything but softening, vast energy resources makes Russia a
major power again.
In recent months, Moscow has expressed its displeasure with the
politics of some its customers by cutting supplies (Ukraine) or
raising prices (Moldova). Vice President Dick Cheney used a May
speech in the Baltics to hammer Russia for wielding oil and gas as
"tools of intimidation and blackmail."
It's ironic that the G-8, a grouping of leading industrialized
democracies, is being held in St. Petersburg at a time when Russia
is clearly retreating from democracy.
Today, Czar Vlad, and his like-minded friends, the siloviki
("powerful ones"), are calling all the shots in Russia, especially
on the economy. They're also clamping down on democracy-oriented
activist groups and the press - no doubt concerned they'll stir up
revolutions like those that took shook Ukraine, Georgia and
Kyrgyzstan.
Putin's certainly not softening his approach on the eve of the
summit. Just last week - days before Bush's arrival - Putin banned
Russian radio stations from carrying the Voice of America and Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty. No challenging the political
establishment allowed, comrade.
So what does Putin want? Great-power status, basically: The
Russian prez, a former KGB colonel, longs for the glory that was
once the Soviet Union's. And one way he can raise Russia's status
is by merely playing spoiler to America's international
agenda.
What can Bush do about it? Some argue Bush should focus on areas
of possible cooperation, such as the new nuclear agreement or
supporting Russia's World Trade Organization accession to rebuild
the floundering relationship.
Others contend that it's time for a tougher line - more stick,
less carrot. That years of using the "gentle touch" hasn't got us
much in terms of advancing democracy and free markets in Russia or
resolving the radioactive North Korea and Iran issues.
Of course, taking a hard line has downsides, too. It could drive
Moscow into Beijing's orbit, creating a powerful anti-American bloc
- and foregoing the possibility of any cooperation with the U.S. on
Iran, Korea or energy security.
But one thing is for sure, we're dealing with a new Russia. This
isn't Boris Yeltsin's "Do everything to make nice with the
Americans" Russia. This is Putin's Russia: bitterly proud,
nationalistic, awash in "black gold" - and more willing than ever
to challenge American supremacy.
Peter
Brookes, a senior fellow at The Heritage
Foundation, is the author of "A Devil's Triangle: Terrorism, WMD
and Rogue States."
First appeared in the New York Post