The unexpected defeat of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party
in legislative elections Saturday will no doubt abate worries in
Washington that Taiwan's infant democracy had been getting a bit
ahead of itself. Against expectations, the pro-China "Blue Camp,"
led by the Kuomintang, maintained a narrow parliamentary majority
in the Legislative Yuan, while the DPP-led pro-independence
"Greens" made only slight gains over their 2001 election
successes.
Despite making some gains, the stunned Greens were humiliated, and
two top DPP campaign managers submitted their resignations. Of
course, Beijing will take heart from the vote as well. The DPP's
call for a new, non-Chinese "national identity" bolstered by a new,
non-Chinese constitution was the centerpiece of the campaign, so
the outcome will lead Beijing to believe its military threats and
its success in isolating Taiwan internationally have finally cowed
Taiwan's citizenry into rethinking its future. But if this is
China's interpretation of the vote, Washington's relief will be
short-lived.
Whatever China chooses to believe, the real message of Saturday's
election is not that the momentum behind a new Taiwanese identity
is flagging. It isn't. Rather, the message is that Taiwan's young
democracy is ready for a complete structural overhaul. With this
blistering four-month parliamentary campaign coming right on the
heels of last March's presidential election, Taiwanese citizens are
suffering from acute election fatigue.
The outcome was that the opposition "Blue" camp, comprised of the
KMT and the even more pro-China People First Party, and their
"Green" counterpart, the "independence-later" DPP and the
"independence-now" Taiwan Solidarity Union, simply wrestled each
other to another sterile deadlock.
When the last ballot was counted Saturday evening, both camps
realized that the only thing they had accomplished was to
consolidate their political bases. The "national identity" issue
polarized the electorate, drawing 49% of those who voted to the
hard-core "Blues" who consider Taiwan to be a "Chinese" nation that
is eventually to be unified with the mainland, while the hard-core
"Greens," who demand a uniquely "Taiwanese" Taiwan, got 46%.
But Taiwan's moderate center just stayed home. Voter turnout was
only 59% -- six percentage points below the previous legislative
election, and a full 20 percentage points below the narrow 50-50
split in the March presidential election.
Candidates in both camps fretted to me over the past three weeks
that voter enthusiasm was "cool" compared to earlier campaigns.
Bi-khim Hsiao, a successful, moderate DPP candidate in Taipei,
admitted that getting out the vote had been a challenge. Bo
Tedards, an American with the Taiwan Network for Free Elections,
explained that "both sides put too much emphasis on the national
identity issue instead of on policies and programs that really
matter to people."
Perhaps more important, Richard C. Kagan of Hamline University
pointed to an A.C. Nielsen survey published last month that showed
consumer confidence in Taiwan down nearly 20 points since May in
contrast with the bullish sentiment in the rest of the Asia-Pacific
region. Scholars believe that turnout would have been higher if
public policy issues, rather than ideology, had been more prominent
during the legislative campaign.
Fortunately for Taiwan's voters, this should be the last
ideology-centered legislative poll. The country's current
"multi-seat, single ballot" system is a Byzantine process
tailor-made for fringe parties playing to hard-core constituencies.
But last August, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, in a rare fit of
sanity, passed sweeping reforms that cut the number of legislators
in half and create new single-member, winner-take-all districts
that force candidates to vie for the moderate voters in the
center.
Unfortunately, Taiwan's voters have to put up with this newly
re-elected opposition "Blue" legislature continuing its ideological
battles with the "Green" executive until 2008.
For Washington policy-makers who feared that Taiwan's voters were
running headlong into a military confrontation with China some
relief is justified. Taiwan's voters chose the status quo. But in
doing so, they guaranteed a continuation of the policy gridlock and
hyper-partisan politics that has paralyzed Taiwan's governance
since President Chen Shui-bian was first elected in 2000.
Many Taiwanese had hoped that partisan tensions would subside if
the Green coalition won a majority in this election. There has been
a steady momentum in Taiwan's electorate for a new "national
identity" separate from China. That momentum, according to most
polls, was to have given Mr. Chen a mandate for a wholly new,
non-Chinese constitution to replace the one now in effect on
Taiwan. The present one is obsolete, having been written in China
by the Chinese KMT in 1947 to govern the landmass of mainland
China. It was intended moreover to perpetuate the KMT's
single-party rule.
But Saturday's vote has halted that momentum and continued
paralysis is certain. One major campaign issue that KMT Chairman
Lien Chan stressed was his demand that the Legislature name the
next Premier -- a right granted under the existing constitution to
Taiwan's president alone. The Blue win guarantees a protracted
fight over the next cabinet, and over just about everything else, a
prospect that exasperates KMT moderates. Over the past week,
several senior KMT officials, including newly re-elected KMT
Legislator John Chang (son of Taiwan's late president Chiang
Ching-kuo, and grandson of Chiang Kai-shek), indicated to me and my
fellow election observers in Taipei that they hoped Mr. Lien would
step down as KMT chairman. Until then, Mr. Chang warned, the KMT
would bottle up key legislation, like the constitutional revisions,
financial reforms -- and the controversial "Special Defense Budget"
request to finance Taiwan's defense against Chinese missiles and
submarines.
Failure to pass the special budget has been -- and no doubt will
continue to be -- a source of deep frustration in Washington, which
sees the military balance in the Taiwan Strait tipping increasingly
to Beijing. At some point, the Pentagon fears, Beijing will be
tempted to use its military predominance in a sudden strike against
Taiwan and the United States will not be able to react in
time.
Taiwan's defenses cannot afford another four years of neglect while
a pro-China "Blue" legislature quietly moves the Island into the
anaconda-like embrace of the Chinese Motherland. As Taiwan's
defenses deteriorate, no one argues that China will halt or even
slow down its massive arms buildup opposite the Island. Relief in
Washington that political gridlock will forestall Taiwan's pesky
"provocations" will quickly be supplanted by the horrifying thought
that a rising China will, in a matter of years, be able to absorb
Taiwan, its technology, its weaponry, its massive foreign exchange
reserves -- in short, everything except its democracy.
John J. Tkacik Jr. is a research fellow in the Asian Studies
Center of The Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in The Asian Wall Street Journal