For more than a year and a half, election observers, including
Atlanta's Carter Center (a private human rights institute headed by
former U.S. President Jimmy Carter) and the Organization of
American States (led by Secretary General César Gaviria)
worked to encourage Venezuela's
dictatorial president to allow a peaceful referendum on his
rule. The goal was to end the debilitating standoff between Hugo
Chávez and his democratic opponents.
Funded in part by U.S. tax dollars, the negotiations overcame numerous roadblocks the Chávez government threw in the way of national reconciliation. But on the heels of that considerable achievement, both the Carter Center and the OAS stumbled -- badly.
They allowed Chávez to place restraints on monitors and
based their reports on what they were allowed to see. They
neglected pre-electoral shenanigans that shifted the contest in the
president's favor, and accepted a cursory audit that failed to
satisfy the opposition's worries over fraud.
The evidence is chilling: Back in May, most polls predicted
Chávez would lose a recall. So the government packed the
voter registry by awarding citizenship to nearly a half million
foreign nationals, in expectation of their support at the polls. In
June, witnesses saw election officials in military trucks cruise
pro-regime barrios, registering new voters. Meanwhile,
registrations were blocked in opposition districts.
Newspapers also reported massive fund transfers from the state oil
company to social programs to bolster loyalty among the poor.
Government-supported, pro-Chávez gangs harassed the
president's opponents in the streets, while government workers who
had signed the petition for a recall lost their jobs.
Chávez even alleged attempts on his life. He had his police
round up 100 migrant Colombian farm workers, dress them in
Venezuelan military fatigues and trot them before television
cameras to suggest that foreign mercenaries were aiding the
democratic opposition.
In June, it was uncertain whether Venezuela's National Electoral
Council would allow any foreign observers to witness the Aug. 15
referendum. But as polls showed Chávez pulling even with the
opposition, the CNE invited the Carter Center and the OAS to
observe. Still, it limited the number of monitors as well as what
they could do and see. The European Union judged these conditions
unacceptable and declined to attend.
And as precincts opened, voters in opposition neighborhoods
complained their names had been transferred to other precincts,
even to voting stations at Venezuelan embassies in foreign
countries. Others said their names had been wiped from the rolls
altogether.
Due to lengthy lines and equipment malfunctions, many polling
stations closed around midnight and only a few electronic counts
were compared with the voter-verifiable paper receipts placed in
the ballot boxes. Quick counts were based solely on the electronic
tallies the machines spat out.
Early on the morning of Aug. 16, the CNE shut out the Carter
Center, the OAS and even council members who represented the
opposition from a meeting in which it declared the recall had been
defeated. Chávez opponents charged fraud.
It wasn't until three days later that the CNE allowed the Carter
Center to audit machines and ballot boxes from 150 booths from
sites the Council selected. The results of this 1 percent sample
were consistent with the CNE's official tally. But it was ironic
that the government had insisted on scrutinizing each of 3.4
million signatures on the opposition's petition for the
referendum.
In his initial post-election reports, former president Carter
described the process as clean and urged both sides to accept the
results on "good faith." Instead, he should have noted the
restraints on observers, government maneuvers to pack the national
voter list, intimidation of voters by the president's supporters
and lack of transparency in the polling process and subsequent
audit.
Now, experts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and
Harvard University have identified signs of fraud based on
statistical analysis. Instead of healing divisions between
Chávez and opponents, Carter's hasty blessing is promoting
doubts and giving Venezuela's budding dictator license to constrain
adversaries.
Following the referendum, Chávez announced he would no
longer recognize his opponents. On Aug. 26, his ambassador proposed
amending the OAS Democratic Charter to punish civil society groups
that dare to challenge regimes like his.
Without meaning to, the Carter Center and the OAS have set back
election observation to the bad old days when Latin American
autocrats manipulated votes any way they could and nobody cried
foul. Sadly, nearly two years of hard work to help Venezuelans find
a peaceful solution to their political impasse have gone down the
drain.
Stephen Johnson is senior policy analyst for Latin America in
the Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.
Distributed nationally on the Knight-Ridder Tribune wire