Early next month, the European Union will be considering the
lifting of the "Tiananmen arms embargo" against China. The embargo
is so named because it was imposed in reaction to the Tiananmen
Square massacre in 1989. A change in the EU's arms policy would
simultaneously give approval to EU member states to sell military
equipment and technology to China while absolving Beijing of its
human-rights abuses against peaceful Tiananmen Square pro-democracy
demonstrators in 1989. Doing either would be a mistake.
The EU, led by the French and Germans, are pushing for a change in
their arms-export policy for at least three reasons: to balance
American global power, to open a new arms market for European
weapons in China and to provide group political cover for the
policy change.
In the aftermath of the Cold War, Paris and Berlin, in intellectual
concert with Moscow and Beijing, have pushed for a "multipolar"
world. In their construct, the United States' overwhelming power
would be counterbalanced by other power centres such as China,
Russia, Japan and the EU. For some Europeans, making China more
powerful will help them challenge the United States' ostensible
global pre-eminence. The rise of China, aided by European arms,
will distract the U.S. from its national interests in Europe, the
Middle East and Asia, leaving Paris and Berlin with greater
influence than they would have otherwise.
The Chinese, of course, see an alignment with other "poles" as an
effective way of increasing their own political clout, resulting in
increased international leverage and an improved ability to check
American power in the Pacific.
Another EU goal in lifting the Chinese arms embargo is to compete
with the U.S. in the world's arms market. Since American weapons
systems are very competitive globally, the best strategy for the EU
is to go places where the Americans aren't selling weapons, such as
China.
China, which has the world's third largest defence budget after the
U.S. and Russia, spends $50 billion-$70 billion a year on defence.
Its appetite for weapons--especially ships, submarines and fighter
aircraft--exceeds $5 billion per year.
Raising the arms embargo will also allow the EU to compete with
China's main supplier, Russia, increasing competition, driving down
weapon prices for the Chinese and enhancing the likelihood of
generous, advanced-technology transfers to the Chinese arms
industry as part of any arms deal. The Chinese imply that if the EU
lifts the weapons sanctions, Beijing will redirect not only
military purchases to the EU, but also large, civilian contracts,
including commercial aviation and power- generation plants.
EU countries are also sensitive to political criticism at home over
the policy change. By altering the policy under the EU's umbrella,
it is hoped that they will inoculate themselves from their
constituents' disapproval for backing down on China's human-rights
record.
The EU's arms-policy change should be opposed for three reasons:
human rights, Asian security and weapons proliferation. First, the
human-rights situation in China has not improved since 1989. In
fact, some suggest it has regressed. Lifting the arms embargo would
send the wrong signal to other repressive regimes. Moreover,
because China's army still has a domestic-security mission, EU arms
could be used to suppress political dissent across China,
especially in Tibet and Xinjiang.
Second, China is engaged in a major military build-up that exceeds
its defensive needs. In the next few years, China will develop real
military options for coercing Taiwan towards unification with the
mainland. China also has an eye towards subjugating Japan,
dominating Southeast Asia, rivalling India and replacing America as
the preeminent military power in the Pacific.
Third, China is a notorious weapons proliferator--from weapons of
mass destruction to ballistic missiles to small arms. Lifting the
arms embargo will allow sensitive European weapons technology to
fall into the hands of China's security partners--Iran, North Korea
and Syria.
The world should welcome China's peaceful integration into the
international community as an open and free society. But China's
troubling human-rights record, prodigious military build-up and
irresponsible proliferation activities must be considered as well.
In the end, if the EU lifts the Tiananmen arms embargo, it will
give approval to dismal human-rights records everywhere, tacitly
sanction weapons proliferation and increase the likelihood of
conflict in the Pacific. None of these consequences is in anyone's
interest--not even those living halfway around the world in
Europe.
Peter Brookes, a Heritage Foundation senior fellow, served in
Latin America while on active duty in the U.S. Navy.
First appeared in the Far East Economic Review