Members of the 9/11 commission in Washington are dominating
headlines as they investigate what the government did before that
dark day to prevent terrorism. But the terrorists aren't interested
in looking back. They're looking forward -- to their next
attack.
Today, we face a different terrorist threat far different from that
of two and a half years ago. After 9/11, the Bush administration
aggressively dismantled bin Laden's network, destroyed his
operations base in Afghanistan, killed and captured senior leaders,
and disrupted al Qaeda operations worldwide.
But war isn't conducted on inanimate objects. War is a competition
between two determined enemies. Al Qaeda operatives have responded
by trying to rebuild their operational assets, focusing on
recruiting and fundraising. They also have incited regional groups
to attack on their behalf and spur support for their causes.
Their latest strategy is to exploit disaffected groups already in
place. As a result, the United States and its allies may well see
an upsurge in terrorist strikes that don't require visas, shipping
containers or international travelers. The terrorists may already
be here.
While the events of 9/11 focused American attention on foreign
foes, concern over domestic groups that perpetrate violence can't
be ignored. Before the attacks, the most deadly strike on U.S. soil
was the bombing of the Murrah Federal Office Building in Oklahoma
City -- an act carried out, we should remember, by domestic
extremists.
Many groups could provide the foundation for the next wave of
terrorism. By some counts more than 600 organizations, with
memberships ranging from a handful to hundreds, have shown the
willingness and capability to launch deadly attacks.
True, these groups represent lesser dangers than groups such as al
Qaeda. However, domestic groups that act in sympathy or as
offshoots of transnational networks could represent serious
security risks.
The threat of domestic terrorism has waxed and waned in the United
States over the years. In the 1980s domestic terrorist activity
declined significantly and the nature of those perpetrating it
shifted from predominantly left-wing extremists tied to the
anti-Vietnam War movement and civil-rights protests to right-wing
organizations espousing racial supremacy and anti-government
ideology.
By the mid-1990s, acts of domestic terrorism had leveled off. But
in the last several years, violence from groups associated with
animal rights, anti-globalization, and environmental extremism has
been rising. For example, the FBI estimates that since 1996, the
Earth Liberation Front, an ecological terrorist group, has
committed hundreds of criminal acts costing more than $42
million.
It's not clear what effect al Qaeda's latest incarnation may have
on future trends. The greatest danger is concerted operations by
multiple actors -- domestic groups, individuals and transnational
outfits acting together. This cooperation might occur not out of
shared motivations or planning, but rather out of a common desire
to wreak violence and destruction. But it's possible that
international and domestic groups might work closely together,
driven by ideology or financial gain.
What can we do? Frustrating what some experts call "al Qaeda 2.0"
is a good start. We need to continue to have instruments such as
the Patriot Act, which allow effective teamwork between
intelligence and law enforcement, while protecting the civil
liberties and privacy rights of our citizens. Meanwhile, we must
continue to expand cooperation and information-sharing between
local, state and federal agencies.
We also need to preserve our domestic law enforcement institutions
the way they are. Creating a separate federal intelligence arm, for
example, is a bad idea. FBI intelligence efforts are bound by
judicial oversight and investigatory rules put down the Justice
Department. It works well that way. Let's not tie the FBI's hands;
let's just make sure it has the resources it needs to be
effective.
In the end, our leaders can't stop every terrorist attack. Some
future Timothy McVeigh will get through sooner or later. Local,
state, and federal officials can, however, work together to
penetrate conspiracies, disrupt operations and dismantle terrorist
networks and their supporting infrastructure -- while preserving a
free and open civil society. It's the only way to ensure we never
see "al Qaeda 3.0."
Distributed nationally on the Knight-Ridder Tribune wire.