"Grandma Doesn't Scare Anymore," reads the headline of a
post-election Wall Street Journal editorial noting the success of
candidates who back Social Security reform. Seniors are "willing to
listen to politicians who tell them the truth about the system's
long-term problems and how to fix them."
Good news, indeed. But opponents of reform still can feed Grandma a
steady diet of misinformation. And if the winning candidates hope
to create a system of personal retirement accounts, they must
refute these falsehoods.
Truth-telling is important, because the long-term economic health
of Social Security is far worse than many are willing to admit.
"There isn't any crisis," writes New York Times columnist Paul
Krugman. "The system looks good for 40 years, and with a bit of
extra resources can survive indefinitely."
It's a pleasant fiction -- but a fiction nonetheless. What happens
at the end of those 40 years? That's when Social Security runs out
of money. It's now running a surplus, but as the number of young
workers drops and the number of retirees rises, that will change.
By 2017, the program will begin paying out more in benefits than it
collects in taxes.
"Eventually only two options will be left to those who reject
personal accounts," my Heritage Foundation colleague David John
says. "They can raise taxes, or they can cut benefits." Some
choice.
Will "a bit of extra resources" do the trick? Sure, if your goal is
to buy time. Take the proposal to raise Social Security taxes by an
additional 2 percent of income. We'd still go from running
surpluses to running deficits -- only the shortfall would begin in
2023 instead of 2017. And after that? Another 2 percent hike? Maybe
5 percent?
When they're not mischaracterizing the problems Social Security
will face, anti-reformers are spreading misinformation about
personal accounts. One common charge is that switching things
around to let people invest some of their Social Security taxes in
personal accounts would be too expensive. "Transition costs" would
range from $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion in the first 10 years
alone. But fixing the system is going to take additional money, no
matter what. The only question is how much.
If we make no changes, we'll need $6 trillion just to make sure the
Social Security trust fund can pay benefits through 2041, and an
extra $19 trillion to get us through to 2077 -- a total of $25
trillion. But Social Security's own actuaries have shown that, if
personal accounts were allowed, it would take only $7 trillion to
assure retirement security -- to fix today's broken system for
good.
So the question is: Should we pay a smaller amount now, before the
system begins failing? Or do we wait and pay far more down the
road, when the crisis hits? Sorry, foes of reform: If we reject
personal accounts, no third choice exists.
What about administrative costs? Surely, critics say, they'll be so
high that personal accounts will be too expensive for low- and
middle-income Americans. But that's not the case, John says. One of
the largest managers of retirement savings, State Street Trust,
estimates that the average worker would pay no more than $7 a year
to manage his or her account.
Others say recent stock-market losses prove the folly of personal
accounts. But only funds invested in short-term or high-risk funds
would be endangered -- and that's not where you put your retirement
money. Retirement investing takes place over a period of decades,
and stocks always perform well over the long haul -- about 7
percent compounding annually since 1802, and that counts every
recession and the Great Depression.
Clearly, Election Day set the stage for a worthwhile debate. Let's
hope reformers take advantage of it.
Edwin
J. Feulner, Ph.D., is president of The
Heritage Foundation (www.heritage.org), a Washington-based public
policy research institute.
COMMENTARY Social Security
ED112702a: A No-Account Debate
Nov 27, 2002 2 min read
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